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THINK TANK: PETER OBI’S ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, SIMPLISTIC, SHOWS A PEDESTRIAN UNDERSTANDING OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

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The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has described recent comments by Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential candidate in the 2023 election, on using money to drive economic productivity as not only simplistic but also hollow.

 

The policy group noted that Mr Obi’s position, which he canvassed in a recent TV interview, shows a pedestrian understanding of the national economy.

In a policy statement signed by its Chairman Dr Niyi Akinsiju, IMPI argued that economic productivity is not a stand-alone item that could be automatically fixed with a single-dose action.

It said: “We do not begrudge Mr Obi accusing the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of being ineffective in implementing economic policies. We consider his proposition of injecting money into productivity as the singular solution to Nigeria’s economic malaise in the first two years of this administration if he were to be the president, as manipulative and borne of a deficient understanding of historical issues that underline Nigeria’s economic trajectory.

 

“He claims his silver bullet proposition would lead to a more productive and sustainable economy. Coming from a former governor and one who had chaired the board of a commercial bank, we found this submission puzzling and, at the same time, vexatiously narrow.

 

“The fact is that productivity is not a stand-alone item in the universe of economic productivity. It is, by fact and praxis, made up of different components and value aggregation.

 

“Economic productivity, which implies the efficiency of an economy in producing goods and services, is influenced by human capital (education, skills), technology, physical capital (equipment), natural resources, and entrepreneurship.

 

“Driving economic productivity supposes an overall strategy to streamline these factors and generate the appropriate quantum of revenue to invest in them while considering the period it would take to gestate and impact the economic space.”

 

The policy group pointed at Nigeria’s economic challenges and wondered what the former Anambra state governor would have done differently from steps taken by the Tinubu administration.

 

“Since 2014, Nigeria has had to contend with challenges of low revenue exacerbated by policies that continuously erode productivity, such as fuel subsidies and multiple exchange rates.

 

“Despite the storm associated with the removal of fuel subsidies and the harmonisation of multiple foreign exchange windows, the Tinubu administration expressed a profound understanding of the national economy by conducting the equivalent of a surgical incision on the economy.

Tangential to this is the “injection of money into productivity” single-dose treatment of the nation’s economic malaise advocacy by Mr Obi.

 

“In an economy characterised by low revenue and huge accumulated debt as of the May 29, 2023 handover date, Mr Obi has left us wondering what exact policy options he would have deployed to achieve his “monetary injection into productivity” policy if he were President.

 

“To put it in context, we wonder how and what routes Mr Obi would wish to adopt in the first two years of his Presidency to accomplish his vaunted policy if he were in President Tinubu’s shoes.

 

“This is, more, in the face of a legacy of a fiscally constrained economy that manifests in a trifecta of headwinds witnessed from the second half of 2014 through to the disruptions occasioned by the 2020 Covid pandemic and the gross economic erosion recorded in the Covid era through to the post-Covid years to 2023 when the Tinubu administration, determinedly commenced the engineering of a paradigm change of the nation’s economic template.

 

“Against this background, we consider it somewhat perplexing that Mr Obi would criticise the Tinubu administration for ‘floating the naira in the absence of productivity while also increasing the country’s debt profile and the cost of debt servicing’ which, according to him, was above the budgetary allocation for critical sectors like health and education.

 

“We consider this sweeping averment on the character of Nigeria’s emerging economy under the Tinubu administration to be either the outcome of unbridled ignorance about the workings of an economy or a deliberate manipulation of facts and reality to exploit Nigerians’ base political sentiments,” the policy group said.

 

IMPI added that contrary to Obi’s claims, its analysis which aligns with that of the World Bank shows that there are enough pointers to the success of the ongoing economic reforms.

 

“Against Mr Obi’s merchant-minded, import-focused understanding of the depreciation of the naira as a consequence of floating the local currency and the diminished value of the naira relative to other currencies, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that Nigeria recorded in 2024 a total trade volume of N138 trillion or $89.9 billion, the highest in the country’s history, representing a 106% increase compared to the previous year.

 

“We also observe how the national economy is shifting from a low revenue-earning to an increasing capacity for high revenue generation, as shown in the quantum of revenue available to be shared among the three tiers of government by the Federation Accounts and Allocation Committee (FAAC).

 

“In 2024, Nigeria’s Federation Account received ₦15 trillion in revenue, with a 43% jump in disbursements to the Federal Government, states, and local government councils. In contrast, N10.143 trillion was received and shared among the tiers of government as statutory revenue allocations in 2023.

In this light, Mr Obi’s conjecture on economic issues shows a truly deficient comprehension of the dynamics of economics and their real-life application, it noted.

 

The policy group also questioned Obi’s understanding of the constitutional mandates of the tiers of government based on his position on the President taking responsibility for primary healthcare and basic education in Nigeria.

 

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2027: More Than 50 Lawmakers Lose APC Reps Tickets in Major Primary Election

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No fewer than 50 members of the 10th House of Representatives are unlikely to be part of the 11th Assembly after losing out in the All Progressive Congress (APC) primaries held on Saturday.

This marks one of the largest turnovers of sitting federal lawmakers since 2015 and signals intensifying internal competition within the ruling party eight months to the 2027 general elections.

While House Speaker Tajudeen Abbas (Kano) and Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu (Abia) successfully defended their tickets, several ranking and long-serving lawmakers were defeated, exposing strong anti-incumbent sentiment and the decisive role of state governors in candidate selection.

Major casualties

One of the biggest upsets was the defeat of House Majority Leader Julius Ihonvbere in Edo State’s Owan Federal Constituency. He polled 1,005 votes out of 7,587 cast, finishing third behind Andrew Ijegbia, who scored 3,695 votes. Abdul Oroh placed second with 1,740 votes.

In Delta State, veteran lawmaker Nicholas Mutu, who has represented Bomadi/Patani Federal Constituency since 1999, lost his re-election bid. Ngozi Okolie also lost the Aniocha/Oshimili ticket to former House Minority Leader Ndudi Elumelu.

 

Cross River State recorded one of the highest casualty rates, with five of eight incumbents failing to secure re-nomination.

They include three-term member Mike Etaba (Obubra/Etung), Godwin Offiono (Ogoja/Yala), Emil Inyang (Akamkpa/Biase), and Bassey Akiba (Odukpani/Calabar Municipality).

Only Peter Akpanke, Joseph Bassey, and Victor Abang won return tickets.

In Plateau State, conflicting results in Pankshin/Kanke/Kanam Federal Constituency triggered early confusion. One returning officer declared challenger John Tongshinen winner with 29,968 votes against incumbent Yusuf Gagdi’s 5,849.

The APC Plateau State primaries committee, chaired by Stella Okotete, later dismissed that declaration as unauthorised and affirmed Mr Gagdi as the authentic winner with 29,207 votes.

At a press briefing, Mrs Okotete stated that Nandom Kura was the recognised returning officer. “The returning officer approved by my committee that has gone to do fake declaration is null and void,” she said.

Other significant losses occurred in Ogun State (at least five incumbents, including Deputy Chief Whip Ibrahim Isiaka and Tunji Akinosi) and Ekiti State (three sitting members).

 

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PDP to screen Goodluck Jonathan on Tuesday as its sole Presidential aspirant For 2027 race

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The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led by Tanimu Turaki, SAN, has scheduled to screen former president Goodluck Jonathan tomorrow, Tuesday, aMay 19, as the lone presidential candidate of party.

According to a statement from the PDP faction backed by the Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, Former Vice-President Namadi Sambo, former governor of Plateau State, Jona Jang and a former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Tom Ikimi have been listed among a committee of 14 members to screen Jonathan described as a lone candidate by the party.

Other members of the committee were Chief Olabode George, Babangida Aliyu, Maryam ciroma, Zainab Maina, Josephine Anenin, Dr. Abdul Bulama, Dr. Esther Uduehi, Edo State PDP chairman, Tony Aziegbemi, Dr. Sunday Solarium and Chief Anicho Okoro, who would serve as administrative secretary of the committee.

Last week, the national Publicity Secretary of the faction, Ini Ememobong, disclosed that former president Jonathan has successfully registered as a member of the party in the fresh digital registration exercise directed by INEC.

The PDP faction also announced that it was set to screen 748 house of representatives aspirants, 198 senatorial aspirants, and 112 governorship aspirants.

The screening committee would screen 2122 states houses of assembly aspirants. The exercise will commence tomorrow, Tuesday in different states.

According to the statement, the screening exercise would take place nationwide on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, at 10:00 a.m.

The statement said the Interim National Working Committee (iNWC) has also released the names of members to serve on the Screening Committees and Screening Appeal Panels.

It added that the publication of the screening details “is in accordance with the party’s guidelines and timetable for the conduct of the 2027 general elections.”

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Oshiomhole wins Edo APC senatorial primaries unopposed

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A former governor and incumbent Senator, Adams Oshiomhole, along with his counterpart Senator Joe Ikpea, sailed through the All Progressives Congress senatorial primary in Edo unopposed, and securing their tickets without a single vote cast against them.

Also Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama emerged the winner in the APC primary for the Edo South senatorial district.

Ogbeide-Ihama won in the seven local government areas of Edo South in the results announced by the Chairman of APC National Assembly Primary Election, Muhammed Ajana at the Urokpota Hall, Benin.

He polled 27,154 votes while his opponents, Senator Neda Imasuen, got 13,580, and Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu got 6785.

The elections were hitch-free in Edo North and Edo Central, where there was no contest against the incumbents, Senators Oshiomhole of Edo North and Ikpea of Edo Central, respectively.

Ajana at the Urokpota Hall said the collation arose from votes cast in the seven local government areas made up of 77 wards where elections were conducted by members of the committee.

He said, “There are seven local governments that make up the Edo South Senatorial District. We have heard from the Returning officers from the seven local government areas. From the collation, the cumulative result we have for Edo South Senatorial District is this; Ogbeide-Ihama with 27,154 votes, Imasuen with 13,580 votes and Ize-Iyamu with 6, 785.

“This is the total reflection of what has transpired from the ward level to the local government and the Edo South senatorial district collation centre. With this we await further directives from the National Secretariat, we have done our best by collating the results which is our mandate, to collate the results and send them to the National Secretariat.”

However, it was gathered that Ize-Iyamu emerged as the APC candidate for Edo South Senatorial race. He claimed to have clinched the party’s ticket after defeating Ogbeide-Ihama and Imasuen.

It was claimed that the Chief Returning Officer, Abubakar Muhammad Kabiru, officially declared Ize-Iyamu the winner after securing the highest number of votes cast.

On his part, the senator representing the district condemned the exercise describing it as a sham allegedly designed to favour a preferred aspirant.

Imasuen spoke while reacting to events at his polling unit in Umagbae North Ward 5, Urhokuosa where he said he was denied the opportunity to vote following what he described as a chaotic and manipulated process.

The lawmaker accused leaders of the party of openly adopting a preferred candidate ahead of the exercise and intimidating members into supporting that aspirant.

He said, “There is nothing satisfactory about this sham of election they did today and it is very unfortunate because as a loyal party member, I expected something better than this.”

He said the warning signs emerged days before the primary when some ward chairmen allegedly informed him that they had been directed not to receive him during consultations.

Imasuen claimed that some ward leaders openly told him the party had already adopted a preferred aspirant, identified as Hon. Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama, making further consultations unnecessary.

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