Labour’s healthcare plans will be ‘impossible to deliver’ unless it can stop the mass exodus of nursing from the profession, experts say.
The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) is warning ministers they face a ‘perfect storm’ of more staff leaving and fewer joining the profession, threatening patient care.
Plans to modernise the NHS and shift care into the community will require tens of thousands more nurses working in local communities outside hospitals.
Dissatisfaction over wages is likely to have worsened since Labour’s promised pay hikes to resident doctors and train drivers, both significantly higher than those offered to nursing staff.
The college predicts more than 11,000 nurses will quit within a decade of qualifying – equivalent to the entire district nurse, health visitor and school nurse workforce in England.
The RCN analysed the latest NMC data of UK-educated nursing staff leaving the register in England. Between 2021 and 2024, the numbers leaving within 10 years of registering increased by 43 per cent, while those leaving within five years rose by 67 per cent.
It says the government must now substantially raise pay to make nursing more attractive and waive the graduate loans for nurses who agree to stay working in the NHS and public sector.
This would boost recruitment, retention and ease staff shortages, they say, with more than 32,000 currently unfilled nursing posts in England.
Professor Nicola Ranger, RCN General Secretary and Chief Executive, said thousands of nurses are quitting early because they are burnt out, underpaid and demoralised.
She said: ‘It is a perfect storm for ministers as thousands leave the profession early and student recruitment collapses.
‘If no action is taken, the shift from hospital to community will be impossible to deliver.’
She added: ‘The health secretary urged staff to stay and help him reform the NHS. He needs to give them a reason to stay. We urgently need new investment in nursing, including through better pay.
‘Waiving the loans of those who commit to a career nursing in the NHS and public sector is crucial. The government cannot afford to wait.’
The number of UK-educated nursing staff leaving the NMC register in England within a decade increased from an estimated 1,607 to 2,295, between 2021 and 2024.
Those leaving within five years increased from an estimated 697 to 1,166 – a rise of 67 per cent, according to the RCN.
Its analysis projects that an additional 11,307 will quit the profession by 2029, while numbers joining the profession have also fallen by up to 40 per cent in some parts of the country.
In September, two thirds of the RCNs 145,000 members said this year’s pay award of 5.5 per cent was not enough and called for a ‘far higher’ increase.
It and other royal colleges have also called for a Commons inquiry into what they call ‘unrealistic workforce plans’ by the new government.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said: ‘This government has inherited a workforce that has been undervalued for years, leaving them burnt out and demoralised. That’s why we accepted the recommendations of the independent pay review bodies to award NHS staff with an above inflation pay rise.
‘It will take time, but together we will recover and rebuild our NHS, so it is a service staff can be proud to work in once again.’
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