Connect with us

Politics

Harris started ‘like a rocket’ in Michigan. Now she’s slipping

Published

on

Marcie Paul is nervous.

A Democratic activist, Ms Paul has been knocking on hundreds of strangers’ doors, making phone calls and sending out flyers, all in an effort to woo people here to vote for Kamala Harris.

When Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate in July, Ms Paul was hopeful, as she saw the vice-president go “off like a rocket” in Michigan.

The state is one of three “blue wall” states – along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – that went Democrat in 2020, and if won again, would help clinch a presidential victory for Harris.

But with less than a month to go before election day, Harris’s honeymoon period in Michigan could be ending, leaving her pathway to victory less certain. A Quinnipiac poll last week indicated Donald Trump is leading in the swing state by three points.

“To keep that pace for the whole race – even though it’s seriously abbreviated – would be really unrealistic for anyone,” said Ms Paul, a resident of West Bloomfield, Michigan and co-founder of the liberal advocacy group Fems for Dems. “But I thought that we’d be a little more comfortable.”

Ms Paul is among several Democratic organisers and lawmakers in Michigan who say the presidential race here is tighter than expected, even as the Harris campaign appears to be heeding lessons from 2016. Critics say then-Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton lost the state because she took it for granted.

A reliably blue Midwestern state for decades before 2016, Michigan has since become a battleground state with 15 key Electoral College votes.

At this point in the election cycle four years ago, when it was Biden versus Trump, the Democratic candidate had a comfortable lead, and went on to win the state by 150,000 votes. Now it’s a dead heat.

There is “no obvious solution” for Harris to break ahead, said Michigan State University politics professor Matt Grossmann.

The Democrats have poured millions into advertising in the state. Harris’s entrance into the race led to more than 100,000 new volunteers in Michigan, while she has visited Michigan more than any other state besides Pennsylvania, according to her campaign.

Trump has also made at least a dozen stops in Michigan this year, but some campaign operatives have sounded the alarm that his campaign has let old-fashioned ground game tactics, like door-knocking and billboards, slide in several swing states, including Michigan.

But Harris is ramping up her campaign visits this week after at least three Michigan Democratic lawmakers warned of slipping support.

But the tightness of the race in Michigan should not come as a surprise to anyone, Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lavora Barnes told the BBC.

“No one operating here on the ground in Michigan should have, or would have, expected this to be any easier than it has been,” she said. “We always knew it was going to be hard.”

Up north, immigration and economy take centre stage

Although the state is far from the southern border, Democratic organisers keep hearing that immigration is a top concern for Michigan voters.

“I don’t understand why,” said Ms Paul, the Fems for Dems leader. “It’s just really not relevant for us.”

But the issue has resonated with many of the voters the BBC spoke to, including Mary Beierschmitt of Novi, Michigan.

“It’s a big issue,” she said, adding that she thought Harris had not handled the situation well as vice-president, when Harris was tasked with finding solutions to tackle the source of migration.

Illegal border crossing reached a record high last year. After the Biden administration enacted asylum restrictions, they fell to their lowest in four years.

Trump has made attacks on Harris’s immigration record a central part of his campaign. His focus has not just been at the southern border, but in midwestern states as well, including Michigan’s neighbour Ohio, where the former president has falsely claimed Haitian immigrants are settling illegally in the town of Springfield and eating residents’ pets.

Voters tend to blame the party in power for their frustrations with national issues like the economy and immigration, even if the Biden administration isn’t solely responsible for the border crisis and the rising cost of living, said Jonathon Hanson, a lecturer at University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy.

“The downside for Harris and Biden is, although they’ve done a lot of things to help the economy recover from a major downturn, it’s a more difficult story to tell politically,” he said.

Trump also may have the upper hand among some swing voters in Michigan because he is more well known than Harris after four years in office and years in the public eye, said Mr Hanson.

Tim and Janet of Novi, Michigan, say they know Trump’s personality well – and they don’t like it. But the independent voters already cast their ballots for Trump because they believe he is better at articulating his policies than Harris.

“I can’t vote for somebody just because it’s a feel-good time,” said Tim, a 75-year-old who declined to share his last name for privacy reasons. “They need to be doing things and have policy initiatives that are going to be beneficial.”

But in the Detroit suburb of Warren, Harris’s new economic policies are swaying independent voter Darrell Sumpter.

The vice-president has laid out a number of economic proposals during her campaign, including a plan to offer first-time home buyers an average of $25,000, and an expansion of the child tax credit.

“I’ve never been able to even afford a house. I’ve been waiting for years,” said Mr Sumpter, 52, who voted for Trump in 2020 and is leaning toward Harris this year.

“I don’t want the country to regress right back to the same state it was with Trump,” he added.

Darrell Sumpter is excited by the possibilities of Harris’s economic proposals
© BBC

 

Making the race local

In 2016, former secretary of state Clinton ran a predominately national campaign in the state rather than a local one, said Mr Grossmann.

“The ads were the same here as elsewhere,” he said. “They were about Trump’s personality and saying negative things, and there was a perception that that really didn’t work.”

She lost the state by only 10,000 votes.

Now, both Harris and Trump are focusing their messages in Michigan on the state’s largest industry, car manufacturers, as they try to appeal to working-class and union voters.

In recent weeks, Trump and his running mate JD Vance have criticised the Biden administration’s support of the electric vehicle industry, saying it will cost Michigan auto workers their jobs.

Harris and vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz have hit back, arguing Trump cost the state manufacturing jobs when he was president.

But on other local issues, vagueness may actually be beneficial for Trump, political experts say.

Michigan, home to the largest Arab-American population in the US, is the birthplace of the Uncommitted movement, a protest campaign to pressure Biden and Harris to secure a ceasefire in Gaza.

The movement has declined to endorse Harris, sparking worries that the reliably Democratic voting bloc will not turn out for the party this time.

Meanwhile, Trump has won over some Arab-Americans by saying less, Mr Grossmann said. The former president has been vocal about his support for Israel, but has also promised to end the war, without providing specifics on how he would do so.

“Among this community, to some extent, being vague or unclear has been an advantage,” Mr Grossmann said.

In Hamtramck, a suburb of Detroit where about 60% of the population is Muslim, the city’s first Arab mayor, a Democrat, has endorsed Trump.

“President Trump and I may not agree on everything, but I know he is a man of principles,” Mayor Amer Ghalib told media.

“We asked multiple times that [Biden and Harris] should change course, but nothing happened.”

Sprinting through the finish line

 

Sharon Baseman and other activists have stopped looking at the polls out of fears they are not accurate
© BBC

 

Despite concerns about slipping support, several political experts and Democratic strategists say Harris’s campaign is doing nearly all it can to stay on top of the Michigan race.

Still, Alysa Diebolt, the chair of the Democratic Party in Macomb County, which Trump won in 2020, said more could always be done to turn out apathetic voters.

“I think Harris absolutely has work to do,” Ms Diebolt said. “You need to sprint through the finish line in Michigan.”

Sharon Baseman, the vice chair of Fems for Dems, said she hopes these concerns motivate people not to become complacent.

“We’re all scared,” she said.

Mr Hanson noted that polls in Michigan and across the country likely will be off by several points on Election Day. But, he said, it’s hard to know in which direction.

“This is a razor-thin margin,” he said, “so it could really go either way.”

Harris started ‘like a rocket’ in Michigan. Now she’s slipping
© BBC

 

Harris started ‘like a rocket’ in Michigan. Now she’s slipping
© BBC

 

Harris started ‘like a rocket’ in Michigan. Now she’s slipping
© BBC

 

North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of the race for the White House in his twice weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here.

 

Politics

Ndigbo are no longer spectators in the Nigerian project- Minister Dave Umahi dismisses calls for Biafra under Tinubu’s administration

Published

on

 

The Minister of Works, David Umahi, says the all-inclusive style of governance being practiced by President Bola Tinubu has made the agitation for Biafra an unnecessary clamour.

While speaking at the inspection of the Enugu-Anambra road last Saturday, December 13, Umahi said the Tinubu administration had given Ndigbo what they had sought for decades, not through secession, but through what he described as unprecedented inclusion in national governance and development.

He explained that the agitation for Biafra was historically driven by neglect, exclusion and underrepresentation at the federal level, but insisted that the situation had changed under the current administration.

“When a people are fully integrated, respected and empowered within the structure of the nation, the dream they once chased through agitation has already been achieved through cooperation.

The push for Biafran secession over the years was borne out of neglect, exclusion and underrepresentation but today the narrative has changed dramatically under President Bola Tinubu.

The President has deliberately opened the doors of national development to the South-East. Appointments, policy inputs and infrastructure priorities now reflect true federal balance.

Every sector now bears visible Igbo footprints. The emergence of Igbo sons and daughters in strategic positions is a testament to this inclusion.

Biafra was never about breaking Nigeria; it was about being counted in Nigeria. Through inclusion, equity and concrete development, Ndigbo are no longer spectators in the Nigerian project; they are co-authors of its future. When justice finds a people, agitation loses its voice.”he said

Continue Reading

Politics

ADC Launches 90-Day Membership Drive, Fixes Dates For Congresses, National Convention

Published

on

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has announced a 90-day nationwide membership mobilisation, revalidation, and registration exercise as part of preparations for its internal party activities ahead of 2026.

The party also approved provisional dates for its congresses and the election of delegates at the polling unit, ward, and local government levels across the country.

In circulars issued by its national secretary, Rauf Aregbesola, the ADC said the congresses are expected to hold between January 20 and January 27, 2026.

The process, the party said, will lead to the emergence of delegates who will participate in its non-elective national convention scheduled for February 2026 in Abuja.

A statement by Bolaji Abdullahi, national publicity secretary of the party, said the decisions were reached at a meeting of the national working committee (NWC) held on November 27, 2025.

Abdullahi said the timetable and activities were approved in line with the resolutions of the NWC and in accordance with relevant provisions of the party’s constitution.

The ADC said further details on the membership exercise, congresses, and convention will be communicated to party members and stakeholders in due course.

Continue Reading

Politics

INVESTIGATION: Why No Imo Governor Ever Controls Succession- The Untold Story

Published

on

Imo State’s inability to sustain political succession from one elected governor to another is not accidental. It is the consequence of recurring structural failures rooted in elite conspiracy, federal power realignments, internal party implosions, zoning sensitivities, and the perennial arrogance of incumbency. From Achike Udenwa to Ikedi Ohakim and Rochas Okorocha, each administration fell victim to a combination of these forces, leaving behind a state where power is never inherited, only contested.

Achike Udenwa’s experience remains the most instructive example of how federal might and elite scheming can dismantle a governor’s succession plan. Governing between 1999 and 2007 under the PDP, Udenwa assumed that the party’s national dominance would guarantee internal cohesion in Imo. Instead, his tenure coincided with one of the most vicious intra-party wars the state has ever witnessed.

The Imo PDP split into two irreconcilable blocs. On one side was Udenwa’s grassroots-driven Onongono Group, powered by loyalists such as Alex Obi and anchored on local structures. On the other was a formidable Abuja faction populated by heavyweight figures including Kema Chikwe, Ifeanyi Araraume, Hope Uzodimma, Tony Ezenna, and others with direct access to federal influence. This was not a clash of personalities alone; it was a struggle over who controlled the levers of power beyond Owerri.

The conflict worsened when Udenwa openly aligned with then Vice President Atiku Abubakar during his bitter feud with President Olusegun Obasanjo. That alignment proved politically fatal. Obasanjo, determined to weaken Atiku’s network nationwide, withdrew federal support from governors perceived as loyal to the vice president. In Imo, the effect was immediate and devastating.

Federal agencies, party organs, and influence channels tilted decisively toward the Kema Chikwe-led Abuja faction. Udenwa lost effective control of the PDP structure, security leverage, and strategic influence. His foot soldiers in the Onongono Group could mobilise locally, but they could not withstand a coordinated assault backed by the centre.

His preferred successor, Charles Ugwu, never gained political altitude. By the time succession became imminent, Udenwa was already a governor without power. Even his later recalculations failed to reverse the tide. The party had slipped beyond his grasp.

The eventual outcome was politically ironic. Ikedi Ohakim emerged governor, backed by forces aligned with the federal establishment, notably Maurice Iwu—his kinsman and then Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Another Udenwa ally, Martin Agbaso, briefly tasted victory, only for his election to be cancelled. The lesson was brutal and unmistakable: without federal alignment, succession in Imo is almost impossible.

Notably, Udenwa’s record in office did not rescue him. Infrastructure development, relative stability, and administrative competence counted for little in the face of elite conspiracy operating simultaneously at state and federal levels. In Imo politics, performance is secondary to power alignment.

Ikedi Ohakim’s tenure presents a different dimension of failure. Unlike Udenwa, he never reached the point of succession planning. His administration was consumed by political survival. From 2007 to 2011, Ohakim governed amid persistent hostility from elites and a rapidly deteriorating public image.

Ohakim has consistently maintained that his downfall was orchestrated. Central to his claim is the allegation that he was blackmailed with a scandal involving the alleged assault of a Catholic priest, Reverend Father Eustace Eke. In a deeply religious state like Imo, the allegation was politically lethal.

Whether the claims were factual or exaggerated mattered less than their impact. The narrative overwhelmed governance, drowned out policy achievements, and turned public opinion sharply against him. Political elites who had midwifed his emergence quickly distanced themselves, sensing vulnerability.

By the 2011 election, Ohakim stood isolated. Party loyalty evaporated, elite cover disappeared, and voter sympathy collapsed. His re-election bid failed decisively. With that loss, any discussion of succession became irrelevant. His experience reinforces a core principle: a governor rejected by the electorate cannot dictate continuity.

*Uzodimma*

 

Rochas Okorocha’s rise in 2011 appeared to signal a break from Imo’s succession curse. Charismatic, populist, and financially powerful, he commanded party structures and grassroots loyalty. By his second term, he seemed politically unassailable.

Yet Okorocha committed the most consequential succession error in the state’s history. By attempting to impose his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, as successor, he crossed from political strategy into dynastic ambition. That decision detonated his massive support base in the State overnight.

Imo’s political elites revolted almost unanimously. Party affiliation became secondary to a shared determination to stop what was widely perceived as an attempt to privatise public office. The revolt was elite-driven, strategic, and ruthless.

The zoning factor compounded the crisis. Okorocha hailed from Orlu zone; so did Nwosu. For many Imo voters, the prospect of Orlu retaining power through familial succession was unacceptable. What might have been tolerated as ambition became framed as entitlement.

This time, elite resistance aligned with popular sentiment. The electorate queued behind alternatives not necessarily out of conviction, but out of rejection. Crucially, Emeka Ihedioha emerged governor because Okorocha fatally miscalculated—splitting his base, provoking elite rebellion, and underestimating voter resentment. Okorocha’s formidable structure collapsed under internal rebellion and voter backlash, sealing his failure to produce a successor.

Hope Uzodimma’s current position must be assessed against this turbulent history. At present, the structural indicators are in his favour. He enjoys firm federal backing, controls the APC machinery in the state, and commands the support—or at least the compliance—of most major political elites.

Unlike Udenwa, Uzodimma is aligned with the centre. Unlike Ohakim, he has survived electoral tests. Unlike Okorocha, he has not openly flirted with dynastic politics. On the surface, the succession equation appears favorable.

*Udenwa*

 

However, Imo’s history cautions against certainty. Elite loyalty in the state is conditional and transactional. It endures only where interests are balanced, ambitions managed, and inclusion sustained. A wrong choice of successor could still provoke elite conspiracy, even if it emerges from within the ruling party.

The opposition remains weak and fragmented, with limited capacity to mobilize mass resistance. Yet voter apathy, now more pronounced than during the Udenwa and Okorocha eras, introduces a new risk. Disengaged electorates are unpredictable and often disruptive.

“Ohakim*

 

Ultimately, Uzodimma’s challenge is not opposition strength but elite psychology. Suppressed ambitions, if mishandled, can erupt. Succession in Imo has never been about coronation; it is about negotiation.

*Okorocha*

History is unforgiving to governors who confuse incumbency with ownership. Power in Imo is never transferred by decree. As 2027 approaches, the same forces that toppled past succession plans remain alive. Whether Uzodimma avoids their trap will depend not on power alone, but on restraint, balance, and political wisdom.

Continue Reading

Trending