Politics
Harris, Trump and demographics in the US election
In the US presidential election in November, roughly 244 million people are eligible to vote. What demographic groups make up the country’s voting population? And how have they voted in the past?
In 2024, election day in the United States falls on November 5 — the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Roughly 244 million US citizens over the age of 18 are eligible to cast their votes, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center think tank, though some states strip that right from people who have been convicted of felonies.
The US has seen an increase in voter participation in recent years. In 2016, only about 59% of eligible voters cast ballots in the presidential election. In 2020, that number stood at 66% — the highest rate for any national election since 1900, according to the Pew Research Center.

Democrats or Republicans? On November 5, millions of US voters have a choice to make.
© imago/UIG
Race in the US election
Race is a key factor in US electoral politics. And there are large disparities between different races when it comes to how many people show up to vote: In the 2020 election, almost 71% of white voters cast ballots compared to only 58.4% of non-white voters, according to the Brennan Center for Justice law and policy institute. That election saw 62.6% of Black American voters, 53.7% of Latino American voters, and 59.7% of Asian American voters cast ballots.
Over the years, the Brennan Center reports, several states have made registering to vote harder ― specifically, states that were governed by Republicans and that had seen an increase in non-white voter turnout in the years prior.
Traditionally, Black US-Americans are more likely to vote Democrat, and 2020 was no exception: In all, 87% of Black voters cast their ballot for the Democratic Joe Biden-Kamala Harris ticket. The majority of white voters in the 2020 election, 58%, cast their ballot for Republican Donald Trump and his running mate Mike Pence, while 65% of Latino voters and 61% of Asian American voters cast their ballot for Biden, according to exit polls.
While it’s unclear whether these groups will vote for the same party again in this presidential election, we do know that there will be more eligible Black voters in 2024 than there were in 2020. According to the Pew Research Center, their number will stand at an estimated 34.4 million, which is a 7% increase compared to 2020. This also means that a larger part of the US electorate is Black. In 2000, 12.1% of all eligible US voters were Black. In the 2024 election, the Pew Research Center projects that 14% of eligible voters will be Black.
Whether this will be an advantage for Kamala Harris, who was voted the Democratic candidate for president after Biden dropped out of the race, remains to be seen. As mentioned above, turnout among Black voters is lower than among white voters. And the percentage of Black voters casting their ballot for the Democratic candidate has been decreasing slightly since 2012, when Barack Obama last ran. The fact that Harris, who is Black and South Asian-American (her father is Jamaican American, her mother was Indian American; both came to the US as young adults) was on the ticket in 2020 could not reverse that trend. It’s unclear as of yet whether it will make a difference this time around, when she is the candidate for president, not just vice president.
Age of US voters
From 2016 to 2020, there was a significant increase in voter turnout among young voters, those aged 18 to 29. In 2016, an estimated 39% of them voted, while in 2020, that number went up to 50%, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University in Massachusetts.
And where do young voters stand on the political spectrum? Exit polls after the 2020 election showed that 60% of all young voters cast their ballot for Biden, and only 36% for Trump. The majority of voters aged 30 to 44 also cast their ballot for Biden, though their majority was a slimmer one at 52%. Trump won the majority of voters (62%) aged 65 and over.
In 2023, 66% of registered US voters aged 18 to 24 said they were Democrat or Democrat-leaning, as did 64% of voters aged 25 to 29. Among voters in their 30s, the majority is slimmer: In all, 55% associated themselves with the Democrats, while 42% said they were Republican or Republican-leaning. Republicans have the largest majority with voters over the age of 80: Fifty-eight percent of them associated themselves with the Republicans and only 39% with the Democrats, according to the Pew Research Center.

Will young Americans be as enthusiastically involved with the 2024 election as these young voters were in the 2018 midterms?
© picture alliance/ZUMAPRESS
Female Biden and Trump voters
Since 1980, women have consistently turned out to vote at higher rates than men in presidential elections. In 2020, 68.4% of women who were eligible to vote did so, compared to 65% of men, according to the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) at Rutgers University in New Jersey.
CAWP also states that “in every presidential election since 1996, a majority of women have preferred the Democratic candidate.”
There are, however, differences when it comes to white women and those of other ethnicities. Since the 2000 election, the majority of white women has voted for the Republican candidate in US presidential elections, whereas a large majority of Black, Latina and Asian women has been voting for the Democratic candidate for the entire time this information has been collected.
In the 2020 election, 57% of women as a whole voted for Biden and 42% for Trump (53% of men voted for Trump and 45% of men for Biden.) Among white women, only 44% voted for Biden in 2020 and 55% for Trump, according to CAWP. The picture is starkly different for Black women. Ninety percent of them voted for Biden in 2020 and only 9% for Trump.
In a poll published in June 2024 researchers for US health charity KFF, formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation, found that among female voters, more Biden supporters seemed to be turning away from their candidate than among Trump supporters.
Of women who voted for Biden in 2020, 83% said they’d do the same again in the upcoming election. Seven percent said they’d vote for Trump this time around and 10% said they’d vote for someone else or not at all.

Trump has passionate supporters, many of them women.
© Wilfredo Lee/AP Photo/picture alliance
Of women who voted for Trump on the other hand, 92% said they’d vote for him again in the 2024 election, and none said they’d vote for Biden instead. Seven percent said they’d vote for someone else or not at all.
But Biden is, of course, not on the ballot anymore. Whether Harris can win back the female voters whose support Biden lost is one of the big questions that will be answered once November 5 rolls around.
Edited by: Timothy Jones
Author: Carla Bleiker, Jon Shelton
Politics
Ndigbo are no longer spectators in the Nigerian project- Minister Dave Umahi dismisses calls for Biafra under Tinubu’s administration
The Minister of Works, David Umahi, says the all-inclusive style of governance being practiced by President Bola Tinubu has made the agitation for Biafra an unnecessary clamour.
While speaking at the inspection of the Enugu-Anambra road last Saturday, December 13, Umahi said the Tinubu administration had given Ndigbo what they had sought for decades, not through secession, but through what he described as unprecedented inclusion in national governance and development.
He explained that the agitation for Biafra was historically driven by neglect, exclusion and underrepresentation at the federal level, but insisted that the situation had changed under the current administration.
“When a people are fully integrated, respected and empowered within the structure of the nation, the dream they once chased through agitation has already been achieved through cooperation.
The push for Biafran secession over the years was borne out of neglect, exclusion and underrepresentation but today the narrative has changed dramatically under President Bola Tinubu.
The President has deliberately opened the doors of national development to the South-East. Appointments, policy inputs and infrastructure priorities now reflect true federal balance.
Every sector now bears visible Igbo footprints. The emergence of Igbo sons and daughters in strategic positions is a testament to this inclusion.
Biafra was never about breaking Nigeria; it was about being counted in Nigeria. Through inclusion, equity and concrete development, Ndigbo are no longer spectators in the Nigerian project; they are co-authors of its future. When justice finds a people, agitation loses its voice.”he said
Politics
ADC Launches 90-Day Membership Drive, Fixes Dates For Congresses, National Convention
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has announced a 90-day nationwide membership mobilisation, revalidation, and registration exercise as part of preparations for its internal party activities ahead of 2026.
The party also approved provisional dates for its congresses and the election of delegates at the polling unit, ward, and local government levels across the country.
In circulars issued by its national secretary, Rauf Aregbesola, the ADC said the congresses are expected to hold between January 20 and January 27, 2026.
The process, the party said, will lead to the emergence of delegates who will participate in its non-elective national convention scheduled for February 2026 in Abuja.
A statement by Bolaji Abdullahi, national publicity secretary of the party, said the decisions were reached at a meeting of the national working committee (NWC) held on November 27, 2025.
Abdullahi said the timetable and activities were approved in line with the resolutions of the NWC and in accordance with relevant provisions of the party’s constitution.
The ADC said further details on the membership exercise, congresses, and convention will be communicated to party members and stakeholders in due course.
Politics
INVESTIGATION: Why No Imo Governor Ever Controls Succession- The Untold Story
Imo State’s inability to sustain political succession from one elected governor to another is not accidental. It is the consequence of recurring structural failures rooted in elite conspiracy, federal power realignments, internal party implosions, zoning sensitivities, and the perennial arrogance of incumbency. From Achike Udenwa to Ikedi Ohakim and Rochas Okorocha, each administration fell victim to a combination of these forces, leaving behind a state where power is never inherited, only contested.
Achike Udenwa’s experience remains the most instructive example of how federal might and elite scheming can dismantle a governor’s succession plan. Governing between 1999 and 2007 under the PDP, Udenwa assumed that the party’s national dominance would guarantee internal cohesion in Imo. Instead, his tenure coincided with one of the most vicious intra-party wars the state has ever witnessed.
The Imo PDP split into two irreconcilable blocs. On one side was Udenwa’s grassroots-driven Onongono Group, powered by loyalists such as Alex Obi and anchored on local structures. On the other was a formidable Abuja faction populated by heavyweight figures including Kema Chikwe, Ifeanyi Araraume, Hope Uzodimma, Tony Ezenna, and others with direct access to federal influence. This was not a clash of personalities alone; it was a struggle over who controlled the levers of power beyond Owerri.
The conflict worsened when Udenwa openly aligned with then Vice President Atiku Abubakar during his bitter feud with President Olusegun Obasanjo. That alignment proved politically fatal. Obasanjo, determined to weaken Atiku’s network nationwide, withdrew federal support from governors perceived as loyal to the vice president. In Imo, the effect was immediate and devastating.
Federal agencies, party organs, and influence channels tilted decisively toward the Kema Chikwe-led Abuja faction. Udenwa lost effective control of the PDP structure, security leverage, and strategic influence. His foot soldiers in the Onongono Group could mobilise locally, but they could not withstand a coordinated assault backed by the centre.
His preferred successor, Charles Ugwu, never gained political altitude. By the time succession became imminent, Udenwa was already a governor without power. Even his later recalculations failed to reverse the tide. The party had slipped beyond his grasp.
The eventual outcome was politically ironic. Ikedi Ohakim emerged governor, backed by forces aligned with the federal establishment, notably Maurice Iwu—his kinsman and then Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Another Udenwa ally, Martin Agbaso, briefly tasted victory, only for his election to be cancelled. The lesson was brutal and unmistakable: without federal alignment, succession in Imo is almost impossible.
Notably, Udenwa’s record in office did not rescue him. Infrastructure development, relative stability, and administrative competence counted for little in the face of elite conspiracy operating simultaneously at state and federal levels. In Imo politics, performance is secondary to power alignment.
Ikedi Ohakim’s tenure presents a different dimension of failure. Unlike Udenwa, he never reached the point of succession planning. His administration was consumed by political survival. From 2007 to 2011, Ohakim governed amid persistent hostility from elites and a rapidly deteriorating public image.
Ohakim has consistently maintained that his downfall was orchestrated. Central to his claim is the allegation that he was blackmailed with a scandal involving the alleged assault of a Catholic priest, Reverend Father Eustace Eke. In a deeply religious state like Imo, the allegation was politically lethal.
Whether the claims were factual or exaggerated mattered less than their impact. The narrative overwhelmed governance, drowned out policy achievements, and turned public opinion sharply against him. Political elites who had midwifed his emergence quickly distanced themselves, sensing vulnerability.
By the 2011 election, Ohakim stood isolated. Party loyalty evaporated, elite cover disappeared, and voter sympathy collapsed. His re-election bid failed decisively. With that loss, any discussion of succession became irrelevant. His experience reinforces a core principle: a governor rejected by the electorate cannot dictate continuity.

*Uzodimma*
Rochas Okorocha’s rise in 2011 appeared to signal a break from Imo’s succession curse. Charismatic, populist, and financially powerful, he commanded party structures and grassroots loyalty. By his second term, he seemed politically unassailable.
Yet Okorocha committed the most consequential succession error in the state’s history. By attempting to impose his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, as successor, he crossed from political strategy into dynastic ambition. That decision detonated his massive support base in the State overnight.
Imo’s political elites revolted almost unanimously. Party affiliation became secondary to a shared determination to stop what was widely perceived as an attempt to privatise public office. The revolt was elite-driven, strategic, and ruthless.
The zoning factor compounded the crisis. Okorocha hailed from Orlu zone; so did Nwosu. For many Imo voters, the prospect of Orlu retaining power through familial succession was unacceptable. What might have been tolerated as ambition became framed as entitlement.
This time, elite resistance aligned with popular sentiment. The electorate queued behind alternatives not necessarily out of conviction, but out of rejection. Crucially, Emeka Ihedioha emerged governor because Okorocha fatally miscalculated—splitting his base, provoking elite rebellion, and underestimating voter resentment. Okorocha’s formidable structure collapsed under internal rebellion and voter backlash, sealing his failure to produce a successor.
Hope Uzodimma’s current position must be assessed against this turbulent history. At present, the structural indicators are in his favour. He enjoys firm federal backing, controls the APC machinery in the state, and commands the support—or at least the compliance—of most major political elites.
Unlike Udenwa, Uzodimma is aligned with the centre. Unlike Ohakim, he has survived electoral tests. Unlike Okorocha, he has not openly flirted with dynastic politics. On the surface, the succession equation appears favorable.

*Udenwa*
However, Imo’s history cautions against certainty. Elite loyalty in the state is conditional and transactional. It endures only where interests are balanced, ambitions managed, and inclusion sustained. A wrong choice of successor could still provoke elite conspiracy, even if it emerges from within the ruling party.
The opposition remains weak and fragmented, with limited capacity to mobilize mass resistance. Yet voter apathy, now more pronounced than during the Udenwa and Okorocha eras, introduces a new risk. Disengaged electorates are unpredictable and often disruptive.

“Ohakim*
Ultimately, Uzodimma’s challenge is not opposition strength but elite psychology. Suppressed ambitions, if mishandled, can erupt. Succession in Imo has never been about coronation; it is about negotiation.

*Okorocha*
History is unforgiving to governors who confuse incumbency with ownership. Power in Imo is never transferred by decree. As 2027 approaches, the same forces that toppled past succession plans remain alive. Whether Uzodimma avoids their trap will depend not on power alone, but on restraint, balance, and political wisdom.
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