Story by Andreas Ernst, Marco Kauffmann Bossart, Andreas Rüesch

Perhaps some had doubted his sincerity on the matter. But U.S. President Donald Trump made his intentions clear right at the start of his second term of office: The U.S. is laying claim to Greenland. That is the best solution, Trump said. The U.S. would «get» Greenland, he told reporters. But how? Under international law, the island is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark. The president wants to change this: If Copenhagen refuses to sell the resource-rich island, he wants to levy punitive tariffs against the trading nation. Nor has Trump ruled out military pressure. Meanwhile, the Greenlanders are pursuing their own plans.

1. What scenarios are under discussion?

a) Independence

By taking this path, Greenland would give up its status as a largely autonomous region within the Danish kingdom and declare itself to be independent state. Up to today, Copenhagen has determined Greenland’s foreign and defense policy.

b) Integration into the U.S.

In this case, Trump would facilitate the integration of Greenland into the United States. However, in a treaty signed in 1951, the U.S. government pledged to respect Danish sovereignty over Greenland. At the same time, Copenhagen agreed to allow Washington to use the Arctic island for military purposes.

c) Remaining part of the Danish kingdom

Under the status quo, Denmark provides annual transfer payments of around €500 million for the island, which has been largely autonomous since 1979. These subsidies finance around half of the island’s government budget.

d) Loose connection to Denmark

Greenland could emancipate itself more strongly from Denmark. A loose connection between the two is conceivable, similar to the relationship between the United States and the Pacific states of Palau, Micronesia and the Marshall Islands. The three countries are formally independent, but their foreign and security policies are codetermined by Washington. In return, citizens of the three microstates are allowed to work and settle in the United States.

2. How could Greenland be separated from Denmark?

As a first step, Greenland’s 57,000 residents would have to vote in favor of independence from Denmark. Copenhagen has agreed to accept such a verdict. However, Denmark’s population and parliament would also have to approve a withdrawal agreement of this kind.

The so-called Statute of Autonomy of 2009 states that Greenland has the right to seek independence. In 2023, a commission of experts appointed by the government in Nuuk presented a draft constitution outlining the institutional framework for an independent Greenland.

3. What is Greenland’s position on these scenarios?

In a recent survey of Greenland residents jointly conducted by the newspapers Sermitsiaq (Greenland) and Berlingske (Denmark), 85% of respondents were against Greenland becoming part of the United States. Previous surveys have shown that a majority are in favor of independence – provided, however, that Greenland is able to stand on its own two feet economically.

In his latest New Year’s speech, Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede called for the island to shake off the «shackles of colonialism.» The status quo is not an option, he said. However, Egede has also rejected a future under U.S. control: «We don’t want to be Danes or Americans, we want to be Greenlanders,» he said. Many Greenlanders are critical of efforts to exploit their raw materials. This is likely to contribute to their mistrust of Trump’s plans.

Playing in the eternal snow: Almost 80% of the island is covered by an ice sheet. However, global warming is causing the ice to melt at record speed. Reda / UIG / Getty

4. What is Denmark doing to keep Greenland?

The Danish government has emphasized that it is up to Greenland to determine its own future. However, it is clear that Copenhagen is eagerly catering to Greenlanders’ sensitivities in response to Trump’s threats. It transfers between 400 million and 500 million euros a year to Nuuk, which roughly corresponds to between one-third and one-half of Greenland’s budget. At the end of January, the Danish government additionally presented a comprehensive action plan aimed at combating discrimination against Greenlanders living in Denmark.

Denmark has also been forced to admit that it has badly neglected the military protection of Greenland in recent years. The four frigates patrolling the waters off the world’s largest island are said to be so decrepit that they frequently break down. To reduce maintenance costs, their sonar systems for detecting submarines have been removed. Copenhagen is now promising new investments totaling the equivalent of 1.8 billion Swiss francs (a bit under $2 billion). The government’s plans also include the procurement of new naval vessels and long-range drones, as well as the modernization of airports so as to enable the deployment of F-35 fighter jets.

A Danish frigate off the coast of Greenland. Denmark has announced new investments to improve the island’s military protection. Ida Marie Odgaard / Scanpix / Reuters

5. Does the EU have a say if Greenland decides to secede?

Only indirectly. Greenland’s relationship with the EU is complicated. The island became an integral part of Denmark only in 1953. It previously held the status of a colony. Twenty years afterward, following a referendum in 1973, Denmark joined the European Economic Community (a precursor to the EU). However, the vast majority of Greenlanders voted against this step in the referendum. Greenland itself left the EEC in 1985, having previously wrested the right to self-government from Copenhagen. Since that time, the island has been a special territory for the EU with privileged access to the single market. Its citizens are both Danish and EU citizens.

Nevertheless, the EU will not automatically intervene in a potential secession process. Brussels’ involvement would be possible if secession harmed the interests of Denmark as an EU member state, or if the act jeopardized the stability of Denmark or of the EU as a whole. This might be conceivable in the case of a unilateral or even disputed secession. The Self-Government Act of 2009 requires negotiations on the path to state independence – thus, any separation is meant to take place by mutual agreement. A sovereign Republic of Greenland could then seek new bilateral agreements with the EU.

6. Why is Trump insisting on acquiring the island?

As yet, Trump has not been put off by the negative reactions to his demand. In his very first week in office, he spoke to Denmark’s prime minister on the phone. According to unofficial sources, the conversation was confrontational and aggressive. Trump has not publicly explained exactly why he is so eager to own Greenland. He has simply presented it as a necessity, citing his country’s national interest.

Trump’s supporters point to the strategic location of the island, which lies on the most direct route between Russia and the United States, and serves as a kind of bulwark in front of North America. As a result of climate change, shipping routes that are currently blocked by ice are also likely to open up in the future. On the other hand, Greenland’s raw materials, including zinc, gold, copper and especially rare earths, make the island highly attractive. Rich deposits of oil and gas are also believed to lie under the ice sheet.

Experts argue that the U.S. does not need to own the island in order to protect its strategic interests there. Denmark, a close ally, has allowed the U.S. to maintain a military presence on the island since the 1950s, including at the Pituffik military base, which is important for the early detection of missile launches. Denmark has also prevented major investments from China in Greenland at the request of the United States.

The U.S. military base at Pituffik in the north of Greenland is important for the early detection of missile launches. Thomas Traasdahl / Scanpix / Reuters

7. How would Greenland become part of the U.S.?

Trump has not gone into detail on this issue, but has spoken only of «ownership and control.» Some supporters have raised the possibility of making Greenland the 51st state of America. However, this scenario is extremely unlikely. Traditionally, the U.S. has seen little reason to upgrade overseas territories to full states. The only exception to this has been Hawaii, which became the 50th state in 1959, gaining statehood at the same time as Alaska. For the previous 60 years, Hawaii had held only the quasi-colonial status of a «territory.»

Apart from a few uninhabited islands, the U.S. currently has five such territories: two in the Caribbean and three in the Pacific. Unlike the 50 states, overseas territories lack sovereignty of their own, and do not have voting representation in Congress. In most cases, however, their residents are granted American citizenship. The largest territory is the island of Puerto Rico, whose population of 3.2 million is more than that of 18 U.S. states. Nevertheless, many years of efforts to upgrade Puerto Rico’s status have come to naught.

Greenland, with its tiny population of just 57,000, has no realistic chance of becoming the 51st state of the U.S. even if its population wanted this outcome – in part because this would also mean granting the island two senatorial seats and one seat in the House of Representatives, which would amount to a blatant overrepresentation in Congress. If Trump were to incorporate the area into the U.S., Greenlanders would therefore have to adjust to the role of second-class citizens living in a mere territory – which may make the prospect of changing nationality even less attractive.

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