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Japan’s government in flux after election gives no party majority

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Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba speaks next to LDP lawmakers during a press conference a day after Japan's lower house election, at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/Pool © Thomson Reuters

By John Geddie, Tim Kelly and Sakura Murakami

TOKYO (Reuters) -The make-up of Japan’s future government was in flux on Monday after voters punished Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s scandal-tainted ruling coalition in a weekend election, leaving no party with a clear mandate to lead the world’s fourth-largest economy.

The uncertainty sent the yen currency to a three-month low as analysts prepared for days, or possibly weeks, of political wrangling to form a government and potentially a change of leader.

Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba arrives for a press conference a day after Japan’s lower house election, at the party’s headquarters in Tokyo, Japan October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/Pool © Thomson Reuters

That comes as the country faces economic headwinds, a tense security situation fuelled by an assertive China and nuclear-armed North Korea, and a week before U.S. voters head to the polls in another unpredictable election.

Election officers count ballots for the general election at a ballot counting centre in Tokyo, Japan October 27, 2024. REUTERS/Manami Yamada
© Thomson Reuters

“We cannot allow not even a moment of stagnation as we face very difficult situations both in our security and economic environments,” a defiant Ishiba said at a news conference held Tuesday, pledging to continue as premier.

Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner Komeito took 215 seats in the lower house of parliament, down from 279 seats, as voters punished the incumbents over a funding scandal and a cost-of-living crunch. Two cabinet ministers and Komeito’s leader, Keiichi Ishii, lost their seats.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba poses for a photo with other members of the Liberal Democratic Party at the LDP’s headquarters on October 27, 2024, in Tokyo, Japan. Takashi Aoyama/Pool via REUTERS
© Thomson Reuters

 

The biggest winner of the night, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), had 148 seats, up from 98 previously, but also still well short of the 233 majority.

Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) speaks to the members of the media, in front of a board with names of CDPJ party candidates indicating results of the general election, at the party’s headquarters in Tokyo, Japan October 27, 2024. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon
© Thomson Reuters

 

As mandated by the constitution, the parties now have 30 days to figure out a grouping that can govern, and there remains uncertainty over how long Ishiba – who became premier less than a month ago – can survive after the drubbing. Smaller parties also made gains and their role in negotiations could prove key.

“It seems unlikely that he (Ishiba) will survive to lead a new government as prime minister … though it is possible he could stay on as caretaker,” said Tobias Harris, founder of Japan Foresight, a political risk advisory firm.

CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda has said he would work with other parties to try and oust the incumbents, though analysts see this as a more remote possibility.

The LDP has ruled Japan for almost all of its post-war history and the result marked its worst election since it briefly lost power in 2009 to a precursor of the CDPJ.

SCANDAL-TAINTED

Ishiba, picked in a close-fought race to lead the LDP late last month, called the snap poll a year before it was due in an effort to secure a public mandate.

His initial ratings suggested he may be able to capitalise on his personal popularity, but like his predecessor Fumio Kishida he was undone by resentment over his handling of a scandal involving unrecorded donations to LDP lawmakers.

Ishiba’s LDP declined to endorse several scandal-tainted candidates in the election. But days before the vote, a newspaper affiliated with the Japan Communist Party reported that the party had provided campaign funds to branches headed by non-endorsed candidates.

The story was picked up widely by Japanese media despite Ishiba saying the money could not be used by non-endorsed candidates. “LDP’s payments to branches show utter lack of care for public image,” ran an editorial in the influential Asahi newspaper two days before the election.

Support from smaller parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) or the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), who won 28 and 38 seats respectively, could now be key for the LDP.

DPP chief Yuichiro Tamaki and JIP leader Nobuyuki Baba have both said they would rule out joining the coalition but are open to ad hoc cooperation on certain issues.

Ishiba echoed that sentiment, saying “at this moment in time, we are not anticipating a coalition” with other opposition parties. The LDP would hold discussions with other parties and possibly take on some of their policy ideas, he added.

The DPP and JIP propose policies that could be challenging for the LDP and the Bank of Japan.

The DPP calls for halving Japan’s 10% sales tax until real wages rise, a policy not endorsed by the LDP, while both parties have criticised the BOJ’s efforts to raise interest rates and wean Japan off decades of monetary stimulus.

“It’s up to what can they give to these two parties to try and get them to just kind of join their side. The best scenario is getting them into the coalition government, but that’s a tall order,” said Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at consultancy The Asia Group.

In a statement, the head of Japan’s most powerful business lobby Keidanren, Masakazu Tokura, said he hoped for a stable government centred on the LDP-Komeito coalition to steer an economy that faced urgent tasks such as boosting energy security and maintaining the momentum for wage hikes.

In one bright spot, a record 73 women were elected into Japan’s male-dominated parliament, surpassing 54 at the 2009 election.

(Reporting by John Geddie, Tim Kelly, Sakura Murakami, Chang Ran-Kim; Writing by John Geddie; Editing by Stephen Coates)

Politics

PDP to screen Goodluck Jonathan on Tuesday as its sole Presidential aspirant For 2027 race

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The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led by Tanimu Turaki, SAN, has scheduled to screen former president Goodluck Jonathan tomorrow, Tuesday, aMay 19, as the lone presidential candidate of party.

According to a statement from the PDP faction backed by the Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, Former Vice-President Namadi Sambo, former governor of Plateau State, Jona Jang and a former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Tom Ikimi have been listed among a committee of 14 members to screen Jonathan described as a lone candidate by the party.

Other members of the committee were Chief Olabode George, Babangida Aliyu, Maryam ciroma, Zainab Maina, Josephine Anenin, Dr. Abdul Bulama, Dr. Esther Uduehi, Edo State PDP chairman, Tony Aziegbemi, Dr. Sunday Solarium and Chief Anicho Okoro, who would serve as administrative secretary of the committee.

Last week, the national Publicity Secretary of the faction, Ini Ememobong, disclosed that former president Jonathan has successfully registered as a member of the party in the fresh digital registration exercise directed by INEC.

The PDP faction also announced that it was set to screen 748 house of representatives aspirants, 198 senatorial aspirants, and 112 governorship aspirants.

The screening committee would screen 2122 states houses of assembly aspirants. The exercise will commence tomorrow, Tuesday in different states.

According to the statement, the screening exercise would take place nationwide on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, at 10:00 a.m.

The statement said the Interim National Working Committee (iNWC) has also released the names of members to serve on the Screening Committees and Screening Appeal Panels.

It added that the publication of the screening details “is in accordance with the party’s guidelines and timetable for the conduct of the 2027 general elections.”

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Oshiomhole wins Edo APC senatorial primaries unopposed

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A former governor and incumbent Senator, Adams Oshiomhole, along with his counterpart Senator Joe Ikpea, sailed through the All Progressives Congress senatorial primary in Edo unopposed, and securing their tickets without a single vote cast against them.

Also Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama emerged the winner in the APC primary for the Edo South senatorial district.

Ogbeide-Ihama won in the seven local government areas of Edo South in the results announced by the Chairman of APC National Assembly Primary Election, Muhammed Ajana at the Urokpota Hall, Benin.

He polled 27,154 votes while his opponents, Senator Neda Imasuen, got 13,580, and Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu got 6785.

The elections were hitch-free in Edo North and Edo Central, where there was no contest against the incumbents, Senators Oshiomhole of Edo North and Ikpea of Edo Central, respectively.

Ajana at the Urokpota Hall said the collation arose from votes cast in the seven local government areas made up of 77 wards where elections were conducted by members of the committee.

He said, “There are seven local governments that make up the Edo South Senatorial District. We have heard from the Returning officers from the seven local government areas. From the collation, the cumulative result we have for Edo South Senatorial District is this; Ogbeide-Ihama with 27,154 votes, Imasuen with 13,580 votes and Ize-Iyamu with 6, 785.

“This is the total reflection of what has transpired from the ward level to the local government and the Edo South senatorial district collation centre. With this we await further directives from the National Secretariat, we have done our best by collating the results which is our mandate, to collate the results and send them to the National Secretariat.”

However, it was gathered that Ize-Iyamu emerged as the APC candidate for Edo South Senatorial race. He claimed to have clinched the party’s ticket after defeating Ogbeide-Ihama and Imasuen.

It was claimed that the Chief Returning Officer, Abubakar Muhammad Kabiru, officially declared Ize-Iyamu the winner after securing the highest number of votes cast.

On his part, the senator representing the district condemned the exercise describing it as a sham allegedly designed to favour a preferred aspirant.

Imasuen spoke while reacting to events at his polling unit in Umagbae North Ward 5, Urhokuosa where he said he was denied the opportunity to vote following what he described as a chaotic and manipulated process.

The lawmaker accused leaders of the party of openly adopting a preferred candidate ahead of the exercise and intimidating members into supporting that aspirant.

He said, “There is nothing satisfactory about this sham of election they did today and it is very unfortunate because as a loyal party member, I expected something better than this.”

He said the warning signs emerged days before the primary when some ward chairmen allegedly informed him that they had been directed not to receive him during consultations.

Imasuen claimed that some ward leaders openly told him the party had already adopted a preferred aspirant, identified as Hon. Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama, making further consultations unnecessary.

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Ajuloopin Suffers Setback as Home Ward Rejects Third Term Return Bid in Kwara APC Primary

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The re-election bid of the member representing Ekiti/Isin/Irepodun/Oke-Ero Federal Constituency, Hon. Raheem Tunji Olawuyi, popularly known as Ajuloopin, suffered a major setback on Friday after party members in his home ward, Omu-Aran Ward 1, boycotted the All Progressives Congress APC House of Representatives primary.

According to party stakeholders and observers present at the exercise, no valid election took place in the ward after members refused to participate in protest against what they described as the lawmaker’s poor performance after three consecutive terms in the House of Representatives.

Sources in the ward said efforts by some political figures and loyalists to persuade members to back Ajuloopin’s ambition failed, with party faithful insisting they would not endorse what they termed an attempt to impose his candidacy again.

The boycott led to a breakdown of the electoral process in Omu-Aran Ward 1, with many members staying away from the polls entirely. Stakeholders have called on the APC Electoral Committee to disregard any result purportedly presented from the ward, arguing that no credible primary was conducted there.

Political observers in the constituency described the development as a significant blow to Ajuloopin, noting that the rejection came from his own ward and among constituents most familiar with his record.

Preliminary reports from other parts of Irepodun, Isin and Oke-Ero local government areas, where voting proceeded, also indicated weak support for the incumbent. Many party members were said to have voted for alternative aspirants.

APC stakeholders have urged the party leadership to review reports from affected wards and accept only authentic and verifiable results to preserve the credibility of the primaries. They stressed that internal democracy was critical to the party’s prospects in the constituency and warned against imposing unpopular candidates ahead of the 2027 elections.

With tension rising across the federal constituency, party faithful said the leadership must listen to grassroots members and allow delegates and supporters to determine the outcome of the primaries.

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