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NASA increases the chance of ‘city-destroying’ asteroid hitting Earth

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  • READ MORE: Map reveals what will happen if the ‘city-destroying’ asteroid hits

The ‘city-destroying’ asteroid hurtling toward Earth is being carefully watched by hundreds of the world’s most powerful telescopes.

Now, NASA has quietly increased the chances that this deadly space rock will smash into the planet in 2032.

The space agency predicts that the asteroid 2024 YR4 has a one-in-38, or 2.6 per cent, chance of hitting.

Those are the same odds as having your number come up on a spin of a standard American roulette wheel.

When it was discovered in December last year, NASA estimated that the chances of 2024 YR4 hitting us were one in a thousand.

However, as more data has been gathered about its orbit, the impact probability has rapidly increased.

Currently, the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth on December 12, 2032, are double what they were at the end of January less than three weeks ago.

With an estimated diameter of 54 metres (177ft), or a little taller than Nelson’s Column in Trafalgar Square, that collision has the potential to cause enormous amounts of damage.

NASA has quietly increased the chances that the city-destroying asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth in 2032 once again (stock image)

 

The asteroid was discovered on December 27 by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile.

Early calculations of its orbit quickly showed that there was a slim chance of the near-Earth object (NEO) making a close pass of the planet in the next decade.

However, as astronomers made more observations and arrived at a better estimation of the asteroid’s orbit, the probability of a collision continued to rise.

On January 27, 2024 YR4 truly set alarm bells ringing when it became the only large asteroid with an impact probability greater than one per cent.

This prompted NASA to award the asteroid a score of three on the Torino Scale, a standard measure for the danger of NEOs.

This rating is extremely rare since it can only be given to an object over 20 metres (65ft) in diameter with an impact probability greater than one per cent.

The Torino scale describes this threat as: ‘A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction.’

Were the asteroid to hit Earth, NASA estimates that the explosion would be equivalent to eight megatons of TNT.

NASA now estimates that the 54 metre-wide (177ft) asteroid has a one-in-38 chance of hitting Earth. Those are the same odds as a specific number coming up on a standard American roulette wheel

 

How much damage would the asteroid cause?

2024 YR4’s explosive power

Distance from impact (miles) Shockwave pressure Damage caused
3.5 20 psi Heavily build concrete structures demolished.
5.5 10 psi Reinforced concrete buildings damaged, most people killed.
8.5 5 psi Injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread.
12 3 psi Residential structures collapse.
24.6 1 psi Windows shattered, light injuries caused.

That is more than 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.

The resulting blast would be similar to that caused by the Tunguska Asteroid, which flattened 830 square miles (2,150 square km) of Siberian forest in 1908 – an area more than double the size of New York.

Based on current estimates of the asteroid’s orbit, astronomers have calculated a ‘risk corridor’ of locations that could be hit if it were to collide with Earth.

This path stretches from northern South America, across sub-Saharan and North Africa, and into South Asia.

Worryingly, the risk corridor passes over eight of the world’s most populated cities, including Bogota in Colombia, Lagos in Nigeria, as well as Mumbai and Chennai in India.

Those cities alone have a combined population of over 110 million people, who could be in serious danger from an asteroid impact.

In the history of astronomy, only one other asteroid has ever been given a Torino Scale rating of three or higher – that being the 185-metre (600ft) 99942 Apophis.

Apophis, nicknamed the ‘God of Chaos’ asteroid, was briefly escalated to a four on the Torino Scale in late 2004 before rapidly dropping back towards zero.

The estimated ‘risk corridor’ for the asteroid’s impact (red line) passes over eight of the world’s 100 most populated cities, with a combined population of 110 million people

 

What do we know about 2024 YR4?

First detected: December 27, 2024

Estimated size: 40-90 metres (130-300 feet)

Speed relative to Earth: 29,000 miles per hour (46,800 kmph)

Date of closest pass: December 2, 2032

Probability of impact: 2.6 per cent (one in 38)

Destructive potential: A ‘city killer’ on a scale on the Tunguska asteroid which detonated with a force equal to 15-30 megatons of TNT.

Astronomers around the world are currently holding out hope that 2024 YR4 will soon follow a similar pattern.

Most NEOs have a higher impact probability right after they are detected with the risk dropping off as scientists gather more data about their orbits.

At first, as lots of new data comes in, the probability tends to sharply increase creating the impression of a rapidly growing risk.

However, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) currently predict that this should be followed by a drop in probability once the astronomers can be more certain about the asteroid’s orbital path.

NASA spokesperson Molly Wasser wrote in a blog post: ‘As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known.

‘It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s.’

She adds: ‘It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.’

Both NASA and ESA will continue to make observations of the asteroid until April at which point it will become too faint to observe until it returns around June 2028.

If the asteroid did hit Earth, the resulting blast could topple residential structures within a 8.5-mile radius (13.7 km) (shown as blue) and break windows everywhere within 24.6 miles (39.6km) (yellow)

 

In a rare emergency decision, ESA has also been granted access to the James Webb Space Telescope in March to better assess the risk posed by 2024 YR4.

The JWST will record the heat emitted by the asteroid using its infrared sensors which will give a more accurate estimate for its size.

Those measurements will be key to making a decision on whether action needs to be taken to divert the asteroid from its course.

If the decision is made to push the asteroid off its current course, the most likely option would be using a ‘kinetic impactor’ to push it aside by ramming a satellite into the asteroid as fast as possible.

In 2022, NASA’s DART mission showed that it was possible to significantly alter the trajectory of a large asteroid with a satellite collision.

 However, with only eight years until the asteroid arrives, some scientists have cast doubt on the plan to deflect the killer asteroid.

In a post on X, Dr Robin George Andrews, a volcanologist and author based in London, points out that we ‘have less than eight years to potentially deal with it’.

‘You need 10 years or more to build, plan and execute an asteroid deflection mission,’ he said.

 

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French Tesla customers sue over brand becoming ‘extreme right’

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Tesla sales in the EU have nearly halved, with many customers looking for electric cars put off by Elon Musk's political positions. Photo: JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP/File Source: AFP

Around 10 French clients with leases on Teslas are suing the US carmaker, run by Elon Musk, because they consider the vehicles to be “extreme-right” symbols, the law firm representing them said on Wednesday.

They feel they suffered “direct and concrete” damage from the way Teslas are now associated with “Elon Musk’s actions”, the GKA law firm said.

They are demanding the Paris commercial court order their lease contracts be terminated and legal costs reimbursed, it said in a statement, signed by lawyers Patrick Klugman and Ivan Terel.

The lawsuit comes as Tesla sales in the European Union have almost halved since the beginning of the year, a slump attributed to Musk’s political activities.

Those activities include him — until last week — standing firmly with US President Donald Trump, and overseeing efforts to cut down US departments and agencies.

He has also lent public support to Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, and came under criticism for making a repeated gesture with an out-thrust arm interpreted by many historians to be a Nazi salute.

“Because of Elon Musk’s actions… Tesla branded vehicles have become strong political symbols and now appear to be veritable extreme-right ‘totems’, to the dismay of those who acquired them with the sole aim of possessing an innovative and ecological vehicle,” GKA said in a statement.

The perception of the Teslas they leased “prevents them from fully enjoying their car”, it said.

Most of the leases run for four years, with an option at the end to buy the vehicle.

Tesla cars in Europe and elsewhere have been targeted by vandals, with some drivers reporting they have been insulted for using what is sometimes called on social media a “swasti-car”.

Several owners have taken to putting stickers on their Teslas reading “I bought this before Elon went crazy”.

“The situation is both unexpected and impossible for French Tesla owners,” Klugman told AFP.

“Musk’s political positions have interrupted enjoyment” of the vehicles, and “we believe that Mr Musk owes these buyers the peaceful possession of the thing sold”, he said.

Contacted by AFP for comment, Tesla did not immediately respond.

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Elon Musk unveils XChat to rival WhatsApp, Telegram, others globally

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Billionaire Elon Musk is pushing forward his ambition to transform X (formerly Twitter) into an “everything app” with the launch of XChat, a new messaging feature designed to rival the likes of WhatsApp, Telegram, and Signal.

Unveiled over the weekend, XChat introduces end-to-end encryption, vanishing messages, file sharing, and audio/video calling.

Musk described the tool as “all new” in a post on Sunday, emphasizing its focus on secure, private communication.

“All new XChat is rolling out with encryption, vanishing messages, and the ability to send any kind of file.  

“This is built on Rust with (Bitcoin style) encryption, a whole new architecture. You can do audio/video calls without a phone number across all platforms,” Elon Musk posted.

Early reports suggest the feature is already in beta testing among paid X subscribers. Leaked screenshots by app researcher Nima Owji show support for group chats, a vanish mode, and a four-digit passcode to lock messages, a significant upgrade to X’s previous direct messaging capabilities.

The bigger picture 

XChat is part of Musk’s long-term goal of morphing X into a Western super app, similar to China’s WeChat.

This vision encompasses everything from messaging and payments to entertainment, commerce, and even dating.

Musk previously told employees he wants X to function as a digital bank and dating app by 2024, part of a sweeping transformation that could change how users engage with the platform.

He’s not alone in this race. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is also building a “super app” through his side project, World, which recently launched an app store and biometric ID system called Orbs.

What you should know 

With 600 million monthly active users as of October 2024, Musk’s X holds a considerable lead but retaining that user base is critical.

The rollout of XChat could help the platform move beyond just being a public town square and into users’ everyday digital routines.

Last year, X unveiled plans to roll out a peer-to-peer payment system on the platform, saying it would unlock more user utility and new opportunities for commerce.

  • The company said this would also showcase the power of the platform users living their “life in one place.
  • Reports have indicated that as of December 2023, X was licensed for payment processing in a dozen U.S. states, and by this January, that number stands at 14, with the recent additions of Arkansas and Pennsylvania.
  • Musk had earlier said that he envisions a platform where users will be able to send money to others and extract those funds to authenticated bank accounts.

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Bill Gates predicts Lagos will become world’s largest city

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Bill Gates

Microsoft Co-Founder, Bill Gates has expressed optimism about Africa’s future, predicting that Lagos, Nigeria’s economic hub, will become the world’s largest city.

Gates described the city’s projected growth as a reflection of Africa’s rising global relevance in the 21st century.

Speaking at the Gates Foundation’s Goalkeepers event held in Lagos, Gates stated the continent’s demographic advantage, calling Africa the “most fascinating” region of the century due to its youthful population.

“Africa is a very young continent,” Gates said. “More than half of all children born this century will be African. That youthfulness will shape global trends in profound ways.”

Highlighting Lagos as a prime example of Africa’s urban expansion, Gates noted: “The city we’re in today will, by far, be the largest in the world. That’s going to make for a dynamic and vibrant environment, and the world will be watching.”

Gates cautioned that Africa’s potential will be determined by the investments made in the near term, particularly in health and education.

“Whether this young population drives transformative progress will depend on the choices we make in the next 20 years,” he said. “If we invest wisely, Africa’s future is nothing short of extraordinary.”

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