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Singapore seeks to navigate US-China rivalry regardless of presidential election outcome

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Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong shakes hands with Senior Minister and ex-PM Lee Hsien Loong at the Istana in Singapore on May 15. Photo: EPA-EFE

The city state has adapted well to the rivalry and is unlikely to shift from its hedging policy between Washington and Beijing, analysts say

As the United States presidential election draws closer, Singapore is keeping a close eye on how the outcome could affect its careful tightrope walk between the world’s largest economy and China amid their ongoing geopolitical rivalry and trade war.

The city state has been adapting well to the evolving realities arising from the fallout of the US-China rivalry, analysts say.

Regardless of who becomes the next US leader following the November 5 election – Vice-President Kamala Harris or ex-president Donald Trump – the fundamentals of America’s foreign policies towards China and Asia are unlikely to change drastically as much of the uncertainty has been factored in, according to analysts.

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“While Trump may inject greater uncertainty and unpredictability, a Harris presidency will not and cannot suddenly engender stability, peace and predictability,” said Dylan Loh, an assistant professor at Nanyang Technological University’s Public Policy and Global Affairs division.

Last week, Singapore’s Senior Minister and former prime minister Lee Hsien Loong warned that if Trump were to slap tariffs of 60 per cent or higher on Chinese goods in his second term as promised, it would put Singapore in “uncharted territory”.

“On the American side, there are not many issues where the Democrats and the Republicans agree on, but this is one [US policy towards China]. And that is a very serious matter. So whether it is Harris or whether it is Trump, that is not going to be changing,” Lee said at a business event last week.

A second Trump term would likely spell more disruptions for American allies and other countries, he said. “In particular, I think, what you can anticipate is that his attitude towards allies, towards America’s friends, will be different from what the Democrat administration has done in these last four years,” Lee added.

In an interview with The Economist in May, days before he became Singapore’s prime minister, Lawrence Wong described the city state as being neither pro-China nor pro-US but “pro-Singapore”. He stressed that Singapore must brace itself for the possibility of a decade or more of unpredictability as the US and China sought a new equilibrium in their relationship.

Last year, Singapore and China upgraded their free trade agreement, which would give businesses from the city state more access to Chinese markets. China has been Singapore’s biggest trading partner since 2013, with two-way trade totalling US$108.39 billion last year, according to data from both countries.

Singapore also has a free-trade agreement with the US since 2004, Washington’s first with an Asian country.

Meanwhile, regional countries such as Singapore and Malaysia have been closely monitoring the impact of the US-China tech war as global businesses seek a haven from the fallout.

Singapore has become one of the top destinations for global tech firms looking to expand their operations into the region, and is home to 80 of the world’s top 100 technology companies, according to a 2023 article published by the Economic Development Board.

Singapore’s Pulau Brani port terminal. The country’s two biggest trading partners are China and the US. Photo: AFP

 

Hedging policy

Harris and Trump have so far been vague about their plans for Southeast Asia, according to analysts who spoke to The Post previously

Ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have diverted Washington’s attention from Southeast Asia, which could limit its ability to engage effectively with the region and Singapore, the analysts said.

While Trump was expected to be “more transactional” in dealing with Washington’s regional allies, Harris would likely adopt a “more personal approach” in dealing with the region, they added.

Singapore is expected to be agnostic about the next US president and is unlikely to depart from its hedging policy between Washington and Beijing, according to one analyst.

In an Asia New Zealand Foundation commentary published earlier this week, NTU’s Loh wrote that across the Trump and Joe Biden administrations in the US, ties between Washington and Singapore had not shifted drastically “from its historically strong and progressive character”.

He pointed out that there were important progress made in areas such as critical technologies, clean energy, and financial technologies throughout the two administrations.

Then US President Donald Trump talks with then Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in the city state in 2018. Photo: AP

 

Relations between the US and Singapore were based on common interests and pragmatism, said Bilahari Kausikan, a former permanent secretary of Singapore’s foreign ministry.

“There is only one America which plays a vital role in maintaining balance in Asia – a role that is now acknowledged by traditionally non-aligned countries like India and Indonesia and even old enemies like Vietnam – so we will find a way of working with whoever occupies the White House,” he wrote in a Facebook post earlier this week.

If Trump were to carry out his promise to levy tariffs on all imports to promote American manufacturing, it would slow the world economy, Kausikan said.

He was referring to the Republican presidential candidate’s proposal to impose a 20 per cent tariff on goods from all US trading partners and at least 60 per cent on Chinese imports.

Kausikan said Trump could also adopt a tougher stance on Chinese goods using Southeast Asia as a “back door into the US”. While Harris would likely not ignore these issues, she might not “pursue them with the same sharpness” as Trump, Kausikan added.

“We have to understand that the US attitude towards trade has fundamentally changed and adapt ourselves to the new reality,” he said.

US Vice President Kamala Harris attends a news conference in Singapore in 2021. Photo: AP

 

Tan See Seng, research adviser at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), said any move to impose higher tariffs on US trading partners could prove “challenging” for Singapore, given the city state’s heavy reliance on global trade.

“If Trump wins, he is likely to reconvene another trade war with China. If that leads to China doubling down on its ongoing effort to ‘decouple’ its economy from the US, Singapore’s economy will be affected but it’s unclear at this point exactly how so,” he added.

On the other hand, Harris would likely take on a more “nuanced strategy” if she were to become president, Tan said. Regardless of the next occupant of the White House, Singapore would have to find a “sweet spot” to manage its ties with China and the US, he added.

The dynamics within the Democratic and Republican parties would also influence the approach of the US towards China, said Chong Ja Ian, a political scientist from the National University of Singapore.

Some Republicans have been calling for a tougher approach towards Beijing while others from the same party preferred for Washington to maintain the status quo, he said.

“We’re not sure, even after the presidential election, which of these voices will win out within the different parties. If Trump wins, he cycles through these people quickly so there could be a lot of vacillation among these different kinds of voices,” he said.

In comparison, Washington’s China policy could be more “gradual” under a Harris administration, he added.

Singapore and other Southeast Asian countries have learnt to navigate through the US presidential cycles every four years, including their impact on Washington’s relationship with China, analysts said.

Tan from RSIS said: “China may respond a little differently to the US depending on who is leading America and Singapore will need to adroitly go with the flow.”

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This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), the leading news media reporting on China and Asia.

Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Ndigbo are no longer spectators in the Nigerian project- Minister Dave Umahi dismisses calls for Biafra under Tinubu’s administration

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The Minister of Works, David Umahi, says the all-inclusive style of governance being practiced by President Bola Tinubu has made the agitation for Biafra an unnecessary clamour.

While speaking at the inspection of the Enugu-Anambra road last Saturday, December 13, Umahi said the Tinubu administration had given Ndigbo what they had sought for decades, not through secession, but through what he described as unprecedented inclusion in national governance and development.

He explained that the agitation for Biafra was historically driven by neglect, exclusion and underrepresentation at the federal level, but insisted that the situation had changed under the current administration.

“When a people are fully integrated, respected and empowered within the structure of the nation, the dream they once chased through agitation has already been achieved through cooperation.

The push for Biafran secession over the years was borne out of neglect, exclusion and underrepresentation but today the narrative has changed dramatically under President Bola Tinubu.

The President has deliberately opened the doors of national development to the South-East. Appointments, policy inputs and infrastructure priorities now reflect true federal balance.

Every sector now bears visible Igbo footprints. The emergence of Igbo sons and daughters in strategic positions is a testament to this inclusion.

Biafra was never about breaking Nigeria; it was about being counted in Nigeria. Through inclusion, equity and concrete development, Ndigbo are no longer spectators in the Nigerian project; they are co-authors of its future. When justice finds a people, agitation loses its voice.”he said

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ADC Launches 90-Day Membership Drive, Fixes Dates For Congresses, National Convention

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The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has announced a 90-day nationwide membership mobilisation, revalidation, and registration exercise as part of preparations for its internal party activities ahead of 2026.

The party also approved provisional dates for its congresses and the election of delegates at the polling unit, ward, and local government levels across the country.

In circulars issued by its national secretary, Rauf Aregbesola, the ADC said the congresses are expected to hold between January 20 and January 27, 2026.

The process, the party said, will lead to the emergence of delegates who will participate in its non-elective national convention scheduled for February 2026 in Abuja.

A statement by Bolaji Abdullahi, national publicity secretary of the party, said the decisions were reached at a meeting of the national working committee (NWC) held on November 27, 2025.

Abdullahi said the timetable and activities were approved in line with the resolutions of the NWC and in accordance with relevant provisions of the party’s constitution.

The ADC said further details on the membership exercise, congresses, and convention will be communicated to party members and stakeholders in due course.

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INVESTIGATION: Why No Imo Governor Ever Controls Succession- The Untold Story

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Imo State’s inability to sustain political succession from one elected governor to another is not accidental. It is the consequence of recurring structural failures rooted in elite conspiracy, federal power realignments, internal party implosions, zoning sensitivities, and the perennial arrogance of incumbency. From Achike Udenwa to Ikedi Ohakim and Rochas Okorocha, each administration fell victim to a combination of these forces, leaving behind a state where power is never inherited, only contested.

Achike Udenwa’s experience remains the most instructive example of how federal might and elite scheming can dismantle a governor’s succession plan. Governing between 1999 and 2007 under the PDP, Udenwa assumed that the party’s national dominance would guarantee internal cohesion in Imo. Instead, his tenure coincided with one of the most vicious intra-party wars the state has ever witnessed.

The Imo PDP split into two irreconcilable blocs. On one side was Udenwa’s grassroots-driven Onongono Group, powered by loyalists such as Alex Obi and anchored on local structures. On the other was a formidable Abuja faction populated by heavyweight figures including Kema Chikwe, Ifeanyi Araraume, Hope Uzodimma, Tony Ezenna, and others with direct access to federal influence. This was not a clash of personalities alone; it was a struggle over who controlled the levers of power beyond Owerri.

The conflict worsened when Udenwa openly aligned with then Vice President Atiku Abubakar during his bitter feud with President Olusegun Obasanjo. That alignment proved politically fatal. Obasanjo, determined to weaken Atiku’s network nationwide, withdrew federal support from governors perceived as loyal to the vice president. In Imo, the effect was immediate and devastating.

Federal agencies, party organs, and influence channels tilted decisively toward the Kema Chikwe-led Abuja faction. Udenwa lost effective control of the PDP structure, security leverage, and strategic influence. His foot soldiers in the Onongono Group could mobilise locally, but they could not withstand a coordinated assault backed by the centre.

His preferred successor, Charles Ugwu, never gained political altitude. By the time succession became imminent, Udenwa was already a governor without power. Even his later recalculations failed to reverse the tide. The party had slipped beyond his grasp.

The eventual outcome was politically ironic. Ikedi Ohakim emerged governor, backed by forces aligned with the federal establishment, notably Maurice Iwu—his kinsman and then Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Another Udenwa ally, Martin Agbaso, briefly tasted victory, only for his election to be cancelled. The lesson was brutal and unmistakable: without federal alignment, succession in Imo is almost impossible.

Notably, Udenwa’s record in office did not rescue him. Infrastructure development, relative stability, and administrative competence counted for little in the face of elite conspiracy operating simultaneously at state and federal levels. In Imo politics, performance is secondary to power alignment.

Ikedi Ohakim’s tenure presents a different dimension of failure. Unlike Udenwa, he never reached the point of succession planning. His administration was consumed by political survival. From 2007 to 2011, Ohakim governed amid persistent hostility from elites and a rapidly deteriorating public image.

Ohakim has consistently maintained that his downfall was orchestrated. Central to his claim is the allegation that he was blackmailed with a scandal involving the alleged assault of a Catholic priest, Reverend Father Eustace Eke. In a deeply religious state like Imo, the allegation was politically lethal.

Whether the claims were factual or exaggerated mattered less than their impact. The narrative overwhelmed governance, drowned out policy achievements, and turned public opinion sharply against him. Political elites who had midwifed his emergence quickly distanced themselves, sensing vulnerability.

By the 2011 election, Ohakim stood isolated. Party loyalty evaporated, elite cover disappeared, and voter sympathy collapsed. His re-election bid failed decisively. With that loss, any discussion of succession became irrelevant. His experience reinforces a core principle: a governor rejected by the electorate cannot dictate continuity.

*Uzodimma*

 

Rochas Okorocha’s rise in 2011 appeared to signal a break from Imo’s succession curse. Charismatic, populist, and financially powerful, he commanded party structures and grassroots loyalty. By his second term, he seemed politically unassailable.

Yet Okorocha committed the most consequential succession error in the state’s history. By attempting to impose his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, as successor, he crossed from political strategy into dynastic ambition. That decision detonated his massive support base in the State overnight.

Imo’s political elites revolted almost unanimously. Party affiliation became secondary to a shared determination to stop what was widely perceived as an attempt to privatise public office. The revolt was elite-driven, strategic, and ruthless.

The zoning factor compounded the crisis. Okorocha hailed from Orlu zone; so did Nwosu. For many Imo voters, the prospect of Orlu retaining power through familial succession was unacceptable. What might have been tolerated as ambition became framed as entitlement.

This time, elite resistance aligned with popular sentiment. The electorate queued behind alternatives not necessarily out of conviction, but out of rejection. Crucially, Emeka Ihedioha emerged governor because Okorocha fatally miscalculated—splitting his base, provoking elite rebellion, and underestimating voter resentment. Okorocha’s formidable structure collapsed under internal rebellion and voter backlash, sealing his failure to produce a successor.

Hope Uzodimma’s current position must be assessed against this turbulent history. At present, the structural indicators are in his favour. He enjoys firm federal backing, controls the APC machinery in the state, and commands the support—or at least the compliance—of most major political elites.

Unlike Udenwa, Uzodimma is aligned with the centre. Unlike Ohakim, he has survived electoral tests. Unlike Okorocha, he has not openly flirted with dynastic politics. On the surface, the succession equation appears favorable.

*Udenwa*

 

However, Imo’s history cautions against certainty. Elite loyalty in the state is conditional and transactional. It endures only where interests are balanced, ambitions managed, and inclusion sustained. A wrong choice of successor could still provoke elite conspiracy, even if it emerges from within the ruling party.

The opposition remains weak and fragmented, with limited capacity to mobilize mass resistance. Yet voter apathy, now more pronounced than during the Udenwa and Okorocha eras, introduces a new risk. Disengaged electorates are unpredictable and often disruptive.

“Ohakim*

 

Ultimately, Uzodimma’s challenge is not opposition strength but elite psychology. Suppressed ambitions, if mishandled, can erupt. Succession in Imo has never been about coronation; it is about negotiation.

*Okorocha*

History is unforgiving to governors who confuse incumbency with ownership. Power in Imo is never transferred by decree. As 2027 approaches, the same forces that toppled past succession plans remain alive. Whether Uzodimma avoids their trap will depend not on power alone, but on restraint, balance, and political wisdom.

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