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What is behind Vietnam’s economic success story?

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The World Bank has forecast Vietnam will show the strongest growth out of emerging economies in Southeast Asia.

 

In a new forecast from the World Bank, Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to reach 6.1% by the end of 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.

Both forecasts are higher than what was estimated in April, with the increase in growth down to a rebound in manufacturing exports, tourism and investment, the report said.

This shows that Vietnam could have a bigger growth in 2025 compared to other emerging economies like Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

“Vietnam certainly faces some serious challenges, not least the ailing domestic sector and over-reliance on the [foreign direct investment] sector, but compared to other Southeast Asian countries, its economic prospects remain bright,” Nguyen Khac Giang, researcher and visiting fellow at the ISEAS Institute, told DW.

What is driving growth?

Vietnam, like other Southeast Asian countries, relies heavily on foreign direct investment.

Between 2021 and 2023, FDI inflows into Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines averaged about $236 billion a year, according to the ASEAN Investment Report 2024.

As Western investors try to diversify away from China amid geopolitical tensions between the Washington and Beijing, Southeast Asian countries are becoming a top choice for foreign investment from the US, Japan and the EU.

Nguyen Khac Giang said Vietnam is taking advantage of those tensions.

“I think Vietnam can maintain its growth momentum due to its domestic advantage of a 100-million population with a rising middle class, while also optimizing the benefits of its geopolitical position in the great power competition between China and the US,” he said.

China has also been investing in Southeast Asia, with Beijing and Hanoi establishing their “comprehensive strategic partnership” in 2008.

‘China plus one’

Like China, Vietnam’s economic growth comes under the stewardship of a one-party system, with the Communist Party having complete controlover the state’s functions, social organizations and media.

“China is Vietnam’s biggest trade partner, but more importantly, it plays a crucial role in Vietnam’s manufacturing sector, as most of its inputs come from China. I don’t think that will change in the foreseeable future,” Nguyen Khac Giang said.

“China Plus One” is a global economic business strategy for investors to reduce sole reliance on market and supply chain operations in China, aiming to expand into other countries while maintaining presence in the Asian giant.

Countries in Southeast Asia are seen as suited alternatives.

Bich Tran, an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said Vietnam is a top choice.

“Vietnam is one of the top choices for many companies’ China plus one policy because of the geographical proximity and similar culture,” she told DW.

“For those who have been operating in China, moving to Vietnam is much easier, and dealing with the Vietnamese would be more familiar than dealing with Indonesia or Malaysia,” she said.

“That being said, Vietnam is much smaller than China, so it can only absorb a small number of companies who want to relocate. India, if they open up their economy, would have much better chance of competing with China than Vietnam,” she added.

Vietnam attracts Western economies

The US is Vietnam’s second biggest trade partner and largest export market.

In September 2023, Washington and Hanoi upgraded their diplomatic relations, signing a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for Peace, Cooperation and Sustainable Development.” Analysts say the agreement was largely to boost economic benefits.

The US is one of Vietnam’s growing list of strategic partners, including Australia, China, India, Russia, South Korea, and more recently France.

But huge investment from Washington is key to economic opportunities for Vietnam.

Apple, the US tech giant, was again named the most valuable company in the world this year.

Vietnam has become a key manufacturing location for the company, with Apple investing over $15 billion in the country in the last five years.

Apple CEO Tim Cook seen during a visit to Hanoi in 2024
© NHAC NGUYEN/AFP

 

Vietnam has low labor costs, and a young and large workforce, with 58% under 35-years-old, out of a population of almost 100 million, making the country an attractive bet for investment.

More structural reforms needed

However, strong growth is also encountering domestic issues. Although Vietnam has one of the fastest growing economies in the region, it has a poor reputation on corruption, political censorship, human rights and civic society.

Domestically, local small to medium companies are struggling to become as competitive as manufacturers exporting to international markets.

Prices are also increasing for essentials such as food production due to climate change events, such as the recent Typhoon Yagi. Vietnam faces frequent electricity shortages, and experts say it must increase the use renewable energy.

Sebastian Eckardt, a practice manager for East Asia at the World Bank, said structural reforms are needed.

“During the first half of the year, Vietnam’s economy benefitted from the rebound in export demand. To sustain growth momentum not only for the rest of the year but over the medium term, the authorities should deepen structural reforms, step up public investment while carefully managing emerging financial risks,” Eckard said.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn

Author: Tommy Walker (in Bangkok)

Business

Soludo takes over Onitsha main market as IPOB declares compulsory sit-at-home

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The Governor of Anambra State, Prof Chukwuma Soludo has announced that his government will take over the running of Onitsha Main Market.

The governor had last Monday visited the market and also announced a one week closure over the continued adherence to sit at home protest by traders in the market.

The closure had generated a lot of tension, leading to protests by the traders, while the governor stuck to his gone, insisting that the market will remain closed for one week. He also held a meeting with the leaders of the market yesterday, where he presented them with two options.

Though it was a closed door meeting, which held at the Light House, Awka, a source in the meeting told THISDAY that the traders chose to open their shops on Monday, against an earlier option of demolishing and remodelling the market.

The source said: “The governor gave them two options. The first included; they will resume full trading activities on Mondays, mark attendance as required, while he regenerate and reorganise the market, demolish all illegal structures and plazas and create proper spaces and car parks. The second includes; To continue with Sit-at-Home on Mondays and risk the demolition of the market and use two-years for its reconstruction to restore it to its original master plan.

“The governor told them that restoring parking facilities in Main Market is an emergency, and any illegal structure erected at the park would be demolished soonest.”

It was gathered that the traders choose the first option, which will involve them opening on Monday, and giving the governor the go ahead to remove illegal structures to make way for wider roads in the market and restoring its packing space.

During the meeting, the governor told the traders that a committee will be set up to rectify all occupants of shops in the market, and that this will commence work soon, insisting that the government needs to know those who are trading in its market.

The governor was also said to have rejected a plea for the market to be opened on Saturday, insisting it can only be opened on Monday, when their compliance will again be re-accessed.

“The traders agreed to the terms, and will on Monday reopen the market to recommence business,” the source said.

Meanwhile, secessionist group, Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) has declared what it called Biafra-wide solidarity lockdown which is to hold on Monday in solidarity with Onitsha traders and to demand for Mazi Nnamdi Kanu’s immediate release.

A press release by the group’s publicity secretary, Mr Emma Powerful said the total shutdown across Biafraland is a direct, peaceful, and unified response to the shutting down of Onitsha Main Market for one week by Soludo.

The release said: “We remind Governor Soludo and his Abuja sponsors that the Monday sit-at-home originated as a peaceful protest demanding the unconditional release of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, the very cause that has galvanized global attention to Biafra’s quest for self-determination.

“Attempts to twist this into “economic sabotage” or “criminality” will fail. The markets thrived during Christmas Mondays without incident, proving that voluntary compliance stems from genuine solidarity, not fear. Soludo’s escalation only exposes his desperation to provoke confrontation at a time when Biafra’s international profile is rising and diplomatic efforts are gaining traction.

“On Monday, February 2, 2026, we call on all Biafrans traders, transporters, banks, schools, civil servants, and every sector across Anambra, Abia, Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi, and beyond to observe this solidarity strike peacefully.

“Remain indoors, refrain from all commercial and public activities, and demonstrate to the world our disciplined resolve. This is not about disruption for its own sake; it is about standing with Onitsha traders who are being punished for demanding justice, and reaffirming that no governor can coerce free citizens into abandoning their rights or their solidarity.”

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BUA Chairman Is My Ex-Husband – Tinubu’s Minister Opens Up On Past Secret With Abdul Samad Rabiu

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Nigeria’s Minister of Art, Culture and the Creative Economy, Hannatu Musawa has opened up about her former marriage to BUA Group chairman Abdul Samad Rabiu, describing it as a meaningful and life-shaping experience.

In a conversation on the MIC On Podcast with Channels Television journalist Seun Okinbaloye, Musawa reflected on her bond with Rabiu, saying their connection has remained strong despite their separation.

She explained that their relationship has evolved into one grounded in family ties, mutual respect, and continued support.

Musawa shared that although they are no longer married, they remain close and involved in each other’s lives.

She also pointed out the lasting connection between their families, noting that her daughter, Khadija, was named after Rabiu’s grandmother, showing the enduring link between them.

The minister described her time with Rabiu as one of the most memorable periods of her life.

She stated that there is no bitterness between them and that she will continue to support him in his endeavors, maintaining respect and care for their shared history.

She said: “We love each other because you love your family, obviously. But Samad is my brother. He’s my family. That’s what he is. And I’m his sister and his family, too. The marriage of the greatest experiences I’ve ever had.

“He is my ex-husband, but we are still family. We juggle coming from a background where, once you’re joined together, you continue to participate in each other’s lives. And so, we were married, and now we are just family.

“My daughter Khadija was named after Samad’s grandmother.

“We continue to share a deep respect and a love, and more than anything, support for each other. I’ll continue to be his greatest cheerleader.”

Abdul Samad Rabiu leads BUA Group, a Nigerian conglomerate with investments in cement, sugar, and other industries, and is regarded as one of the country’s leading business figures.

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LIRS reiterates January 31st deadline for employers’ Annual Tax returns filing

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The Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS) has reiterated the statutory deadline of 31st January 2026 for all employers of labour in Lagos State to fulfil their statutory obligation to file their annual tax returns for the 2025 financial year.

In a statement issued on Thursday, January 19, the Executive Chairman of LIRS, Dr Ayodele Subair, reminded employers that the obligation to file annual returns is in accordance with the provisions of the Nigeria Tax Administration Act 2025 (NTAA).

Dr Subair explained that employers are required to file detailed returns on emoluments and compensation paid to their employees, as well as payments made to their service providers, vendors and consultants, and to ensure that all applicable taxes due for the year 2025 are fully remitted. He emphasised that filing of annual returns is a mandatory legal obligation, and warned that failure to comply will result in statutory sanctions, including administrative penalties, as prescribed under the new tax law.

According to Section 14 of the Nigeria Tax Administration Act 2025 (NTAA), employers are required to file detailed annual returns of all emoluments paid to employees, including taxes deducted and remitted to relevant tax authorities. Such returns must be filed and submitted not later than January 31 each year.

Dr Subair stated

“Employers must prioritise the timely filing of their annual income tax returns. Compliance should be part of our everyday business practice. Early and accurate filing not only ensures adherence to the law as required by the Nigerian Constitution, but also supports effective revenue tracking, which is important to Lagos State’s fiscal planning and sustainability.”

He further noted that in Lagos State, electronic filing via the LIRS eTax platform remains the only approved and acceptable mode of filing, as manual submissions have been completely phased out. This measure, he said, is aimed at simplifying and standardising tax administration processes in the State.

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