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What is behind Vietnam’s economic success story?

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The World Bank has forecast Vietnam will show the strongest growth out of emerging economies in Southeast Asia.

 

In a new forecast from the World Bank, Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to reach 6.1% by the end of 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.

Both forecasts are higher than what was estimated in April, with the increase in growth down to a rebound in manufacturing exports, tourism and investment, the report said.

This shows that Vietnam could have a bigger growth in 2025 compared to other emerging economies like Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

“Vietnam certainly faces some serious challenges, not least the ailing domestic sector and over-reliance on the [foreign direct investment] sector, but compared to other Southeast Asian countries, its economic prospects remain bright,” Nguyen Khac Giang, researcher and visiting fellow at the ISEAS Institute, told DW.

What is driving growth?

Vietnam, like other Southeast Asian countries, relies heavily on foreign direct investment.

Between 2021 and 2023, FDI inflows into Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines averaged about $236 billion a year, according to the ASEAN Investment Report 2024.

As Western investors try to diversify away from China amid geopolitical tensions between the Washington and Beijing, Southeast Asian countries are becoming a top choice for foreign investment from the US, Japan and the EU.

Nguyen Khac Giang said Vietnam is taking advantage of those tensions.

“I think Vietnam can maintain its growth momentum due to its domestic advantage of a 100-million population with a rising middle class, while also optimizing the benefits of its geopolitical position in the great power competition between China and the US,” he said.

China has also been investing in Southeast Asia, with Beijing and Hanoi establishing their “comprehensive strategic partnership” in 2008.

‘China plus one’

Like China, Vietnam’s economic growth comes under the stewardship of a one-party system, with the Communist Party having complete controlover the state’s functions, social organizations and media.

“China is Vietnam’s biggest trade partner, but more importantly, it plays a crucial role in Vietnam’s manufacturing sector, as most of its inputs come from China. I don’t think that will change in the foreseeable future,” Nguyen Khac Giang said.

“China Plus One” is a global economic business strategy for investors to reduce sole reliance on market and supply chain operations in China, aiming to expand into other countries while maintaining presence in the Asian giant.

Countries in Southeast Asia are seen as suited alternatives.

Bich Tran, an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said Vietnam is a top choice.

“Vietnam is one of the top choices for many companies’ China plus one policy because of the geographical proximity and similar culture,” she told DW.

“For those who have been operating in China, moving to Vietnam is much easier, and dealing with the Vietnamese would be more familiar than dealing with Indonesia or Malaysia,” she said.

“That being said, Vietnam is much smaller than China, so it can only absorb a small number of companies who want to relocate. India, if they open up their economy, would have much better chance of competing with China than Vietnam,” she added.

Vietnam attracts Western economies

The US is Vietnam’s second biggest trade partner and largest export market.

In September 2023, Washington and Hanoi upgraded their diplomatic relations, signing a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for Peace, Cooperation and Sustainable Development.” Analysts say the agreement was largely to boost economic benefits.

The US is one of Vietnam’s growing list of strategic partners, including Australia, China, India, Russia, South Korea, and more recently France.

But huge investment from Washington is key to economic opportunities for Vietnam.

Apple, the US tech giant, was again named the most valuable company in the world this year.

Vietnam has become a key manufacturing location for the company, with Apple investing over $15 billion in the country in the last five years.

Apple CEO Tim Cook seen during a visit to Hanoi in 2024
© NHAC NGUYEN/AFP

 

Vietnam has low labor costs, and a young and large workforce, with 58% under 35-years-old, out of a population of almost 100 million, making the country an attractive bet for investment.

More structural reforms needed

However, strong growth is also encountering domestic issues. Although Vietnam has one of the fastest growing economies in the region, it has a poor reputation on corruption, political censorship, human rights and civic society.

Domestically, local small to medium companies are struggling to become as competitive as manufacturers exporting to international markets.

Prices are also increasing for essentials such as food production due to climate change events, such as the recent Typhoon Yagi. Vietnam faces frequent electricity shortages, and experts say it must increase the use renewable energy.

Sebastian Eckardt, a practice manager for East Asia at the World Bank, said structural reforms are needed.

“During the first half of the year, Vietnam’s economy benefitted from the rebound in export demand. To sustain growth momentum not only for the rest of the year but over the medium term, the authorities should deepen structural reforms, step up public investment while carefully managing emerging financial risks,” Eckard said.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn

Author: Tommy Walker (in Bangkok)

Business

NNPC Slashes Petrol Price

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has reduced petrol prices at its retail stations in Lagos, Abuja, and other states by at least N20 per litre.

 

Current pump prices now range between N895 and N965.

In Lagos, the price dropped from N910 to N890 per litre, while in Abuja, it moved down from N940 to N920 per litre.

Other stations, including Ardova, MRS, and First Royal, are now selling petrol at N890 per litre.

 

Across the country, new pump prices for major states are as follows: Abuja N920, Lagos N890, Abia N912, Adamawa N940, Akwa Ibom N910, Anambra N905, Bauchi N915, Bayelsa N900, Benue N935, Borno N945, Cross River N910, Delta N900, Ebonyi N928, Edo N910, Enugu N912, Gombe N965, Imo N928, Kaduna N935, Kano N935, Kwara N905, Nassarawa N935, Niger N955, Ogun N905, Ondo N905, Osun N895, Oyo N905, Plateau N900, Rivers N895, Sokoto N935, Taraba N950, Yobe N950, and Zamfara N945.

 

Depot prices have also been adjusted following the arrival of fresh petrol shipments.

 

In Lagos, depots such as Wosbab, Chipet, Integrated, and Bovas now sell at N836 per litre, with Aiteo charging N835. Port Harcourt depots including Masters, Liquid Bulk, and Bulk Strategic reduced rates to N853, while Warri depots adjusted prices between N846 and N848.

 

Calabar depots also lowered costs, with rates ranging from N846 to N849 per litre.

 

The reduction comes after Dangote Refinery lowered its gantry price to N840 per litre.

Diesel prices also fell, dropping from N950 to N910 per litre.

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Egbu Community That Powers South East Battles Months Of Darkness

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Egbu community in Owerri North Local Government Area of Imo State has endured months of crippling electricity outages, even as it hosts a Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) facility supplying and distributing power to the entire South-East.

Residents describe the situation as cruelly ironic: while electricity flows from their town to cities across five states, Egbu itself receives barely two hours of power daily.

The blackout has intensified amid a standoff between the Imo State government and the Enugu Electricity Distribution Company (EEDC) over the proposed Orashi Electricity Distribution Company.

Governor Hope Uzodimma announced at the recent Imo Economic Summit that Orashi Electricity Distribution Company would commence operations in December, promising improved supply and stability across the state.

Before this announcement, the Imo State government accused EEDC of deliberately shutting down power in retaliation for the creation of the new distribution company. Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Declan Emelumba, insisted the state’s intervention aims solely to improve electricity delivery and protect residents.

EEDC, through its Head of Communications, Emeka Eze, denied the claim, asserting the company has no intention to disrupt supply. It also noted that agents of the state government had previously interfered with its Egbu transmission facility, disrupting operations.

Caught in the crossfire, Egbu remains the worst affected, with prolonged blackouts crippling businesses and daily life. Residents say the 11KV Egbu feeder, which supplies electricity locally, has been in poor condition for years, severely limiting power availability.

Augustine Njoku, a youth leader in Mpana area, said, “That 11KV feeder has been bad for years. EEDC refuses to fix it, and that is why we are in darkness.”

Small businesses are struggling. Uche Onwuka, who runs a football viewing centre at Ishiuzor village, said unreliable power has driven away customers. “I spend everything on petrol; there’s no profit left,” he lamented.

Restaurant owner, Ms Augusta Igwe added, “Running my generator eats up all my profit. How could two hours of electricity supply improve my business. This is unacceptable. I can no longer cope.”

Am Electronics trader, Gibson Amuneke said he was forced to close his shop: “There is no business without electricity.. This is very insensitive. When you go to other parts of the State, there is reasonable power supply but here in Egbu, which hosts the Transmission. station, we hardly get supply”

Residents also complain of high estimated electricity bills despite scant supply, describing it as unfair for a community that hosts a major national power installation.

Efforts to reach EEDC officials about the 11KV feeder and residents’ claims went unanswered. With Orashi Electricity Distribution Company set to begin operations in December and the EEDC-Imo standoff unresolved, Egbu residents remain trapped in darkness, questioning how a community that powers the South-East can be left in such neglect.

 

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Boris Johnson Says He Feels “Perfectly Safe” in Nigeria, Praises Imo State’s Progress

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Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has expressed confidence in Nigeria’s security, saying he feels perfectly safe during his visit to the country. His remarks come amid ongoing reports of insecurity in various parts of Nigeria, making his statement a notable endorsement of the nation’s stability in certain regions.

Johnson made the declaration on Thursday, December 4, 2025, while addressing participants at the Imo State Economic Summit 2025 in Owerri, the state capital. He acknowledged having read travel advisories and news reports highlighting security concerns prior to his trip but said his experience has been reassuring.

He said he feels perfectly safe in the country and emphasized that the summit environment and local hospitality contributed to his sense of security. He also asked the audience if they felt safe, receiving an enthusiastic affirmation.

During his visit, Johnson commended Governor Hope Uzodimma and the Imo State Government for their development initiatives, particularly efforts to provide 24-hour electricity. He highlighted the potential of Nigeria as a hub for innovation and economic growth, noting the opportunities presented by emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence.

While his statements have been welcomed by some as a boost to international confidence in Nigeria, analysts caution that the former prime minister’s experience reflects only a controlled and secure environment within Imo State. Several parts of the country continue to face challenges, including banditry, communal conflicts, and kidnappings.

Nonetheless, Johnson’s visit and remarks are significant, sending a positive message to investors and global observers about Nigeria’s potential for stability and progress. They also underscore the contrast between localized experiences of safety and broader security challenges across the country.

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