Politics
A path to Ukrainian peace: Beyond exaggerated expectations
The protracted, attritional war that Russia has waged against Ukraine for nearly three years has led analysts and political leaders alike to ponder how to end this war as soon as possible and achieve a lasting peace.
Increasingly, proposals are emerging to apply a model similar to the one implemented in Germany after World War II. Adapting to Ukraine would mean that it would never relinquish the annexed territories, and the West would never recognise these territories as Russian.
However, Ukraine would accept the reality that it cannot reclaim the occupied territories through force and would commit to a non-violent approach.
In exchange, Ukraine would demand concrete, not merely symbolic, security guarantees that Russia would not repeat its aggression against Ukraine.
Just recently, both Czech President Petr Pavel and outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have expressed themselves along a similar vein. So, what is preventing the implementation of such a solution?
I would say that a problem lies in the exaggerated and unrealistic expectations held by Ukrainian citizens and a significant part of the democratic world.
This is a common phenomenon within the political sphere. Unrealistic expectations can be inadvertently cultivated not only by populists but also by well-intentioned politicians who make excessive promises to their constituents.
Such expectations pose a significant risk, not merely to the politicians who propagate them, but more importantly to the communities they represent, as these communities may find themselves on a perilous path with limited options for reversal.
Can we really make Putin kneel?
It appears that Ukraine has experienced precisely this phenomenon. The initial Ukrainian successes, including the defence of Kyiv against a blitzkrieg (a rapid invasion by Russian airborne troops at the outset of the war), the defence of Kharkiv, and the subsequent daring counteroffensive, led both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and parts of the West to experience euphoria and to foster expectations of a Ukrainian victory over Russia, with Western support.
These expectations included the notion of expelling Russian forces from all occupied territories, including Crimea.
Russian soldiers guard a pier where two Ukrainian naval vessels are moored, in Sevastopol, March 2014 AP Photo
The West is also to blame for creating these exaggerated, unrealistic expectations. Some leaders hoped to persuade Putin to back down or at least suspend his operation. In the case of Ukraine, the granting of EU candidate status was considered by many to be something that was not even on the table.
Talk of the West’s vast economic and military superiority also contributed to the illusion that, eventually, Putin will kneel.
However, it seems to me that President Zelensky also made a key mistake by not involving the Ukrainian parliamentary opposition in solving the problem.
On the contrary, there have been reports here and there that Ukrainian border guards have not allowed the leader of the opposition, former President Petro Poroshenko, to leave Ukraine.
The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has repeatedly expressed his criticism of the president. There are no known joint negotiations by the wider Ukrainian political leadership to seek a common solution to the key issues of the war.
I believe Zelenskyy should do this
And that’s how misinformation spreads. For example, the idea that these are various nationalist, if not outright fascist, units of Ukrainian fighters who are preventing President Zelenskyy from making any compromises.
In reality, it is the Ukrainian president himself who has manoeuvred himself into a position where the opposition will not proactively help him, and his voters will have a hard time understanding a potential change of approach to ending the war and thus will also have a hard time accepting any compromise.
Politics
President Tinubu Commends Nigeria’s Armed Forces for Protecting Democracy in Benin Republic
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has commended the gallantry of Nigeria’s military on Sunday for responding swiftly to the request by the Government of Benin Republic to save its 35-year-old democracy from coup plotters who struck at dawn today.
Acting on two separate requests from the Government of Benin, President Tinubu first ordered Nigerian Air Force fighter jets to enter the country and take over the airspace to help dislodge the coup plotters from the National TV and a military camp where they had regrouped.
The Republic of Benin, through its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a Note Verbal, requested immediate Nigerian air support “in view of the urgency and seriousness of the situation and to safeguard the constitutional order, protect national institutions and ensure the security of the population.”
In the second request, the authorities in Benin requested the deployment of Nigerian Air Force assets within Beninoise airspace for surveillance and rapid intervention operations under Benin-led coordination.
The Benin government also requested Nigerian ground forces, “strictly for missions approved by the Beninese Command authority in support of the protection of constitutional institutions and the containment of armed Groups.”
Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Olufemi Oluyede, said all the requests have been fulfilled, with Nigerian ground forces now in Benin.
“Ours is to comply with the order of the Commander-in-Chief of our armed forces, President Tinubu,” he said.
Constitutional order was upended in the Republic of Benin, Nigeria’s neighbour, when some soldiers led by Colonel Pascal Tigri announced a coup on Sunday morning. The putschists seized the National TV and claimed they had toppled President Patrice Talon and suspended all democratic institutions.
It took some hours before the government’s loyal forces, assisted by Nigeria, took control and flushed out the coup plotters from the National TV.
In his remarks after the restoration of the democratic and constitutional order, President Tinubu saluted the Nigerian armed forces for standing firm as a protector and defender of democracy.
“Today, the Nigerian armed forces stood gallantly as a defender and protector of constitutional order in the Republic of Benin on the invitation of the government. Our armed forces acted within the ambit of the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. They have helped stabilise a neighbouring country and have made us proud of their commitment to sustaining our democratic values and ideals since 1999. Nigeria stands firmly with the government and people of the Republic of Benin.”
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Board of Trustees (BoT) is presently meeting in Abuja.
In his opening address, the BoT Chairman, Senator Mao Ohuabunwa, reaffirmed the commitment of the body to restoring confidence within the party and organizing congresses in states where they have not yet been held.
Senator Ohuabunwa told members that the national leadership is ready to work collaboratively with all state chapters to bring fresh leadership and stability across the country.
He outlined the PDP’s roadmap: conduct overdue state congresses, consolidate ongoing achievements, and support the national leadership to steer the party back on course.
According to him, these steps are critical to ensuring unity, transparency, and strengthening grassroots engagement.
By holding timely congresses and reinforcing organizational discipline, PDP hopes to rebuild trust among members and present a more organized, credible front ahead of future elections.
Benin’s President Patrice Talon is safe, and security forces are restoring order after a faction of soldiers claimed to have removed him from power, the presidency announced on Sunday.
In a brief statement, the presidency dismissed the soldiers’ declaration as the actions of a fringe group with limited influence.
“This is a small group of individuals who only managed to seize the television station. The regular army is steadily regaining control. Both the city and the entire country remain completely secure,” the statement said.
The clarification follows an earlier broadcast by soldiers identifying themselves as the “Military Committee for Refoundation,” who declared that Talon had been removed from office.
The government has since described the broadcast as an isolated disruption, assuring citizens that the situation is under control.
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