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How US election outcome could affect the Western Balkans

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As the US presidential election approaches, the countries in the Balkans — in particular Serbia and Kosovo — are watching closely. What impact will the election outcome have on this corner of southeastern Europe?

On September 23, Donald Trump’s oldest son, Donald Jr., sat down to dinner with Serbian businesspeople in Belgrade to discuss investment opportunities.

This was not a first for the Trump family: The former president’s contacts to Serbian entrepreneurs and government representatives go as far back as 2013.

At the time, Ivica Dacic, then prime minister of Serbia, spoke publicly of Trump’s interest in a real estate project.

The object in question was the former headquarters of the Yugoslav People’s Army, which was seriously damaged in the NATO bombardment of 1999. But the negotiations came to nothing.

Then, in May of this year, Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, led by the former US ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, sealed the deal. The billion-dollar contract includes a 99-year lease on the complex.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic (right) presented former US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell (left) with the Order of the Serbian Flag in 2023
© Darko Vojinovic/dpa/picture alliance

 

Grenell is seen as a likely candidate for the post of secretary of state, should Trump win the presidential election in November. He was considered the most unpopular postwar US ambassador in Berlin during his time at the embassy. The Swiss daily newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung went as far as to call him an “undiplomat” because of his “loutish behavior.”

Donald Trump Jr. recently praised him as the “top contender for secretary of state.”

Trump’s failed Balkan course

As Trump’s special envoy for the Balkans, it was Grenell who pulled the strings in 2020 when Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti was ousted because he stood in the way of another deal.

The agreement in question was allegedly about a territorial exchange along ethnic lines between Serbia and Kosovo. In June 2020, the then-president of Kosovo, Hashim Thaci, and Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic wanted to meet Trump in the White House to sign the agreement.

According to reports, the agreement would have seen the four predominantly ethnic Serb communities in northern Kosovo becoming part of Serbia. In return, the predominantly ethnic Albanian Presevo Valley in southern Serbia would have become part of Kosovo.

A land swap such as this could have had a domino effect in the region because the states of the Western Balkans are all still largely multiethnic.

Bosnian-Serb leader Milorad Dodik had already threatened that were the land exchange to take place, the Republika Srpska — the predominantly Serb part of Bosnia and Herzegovina — would join Serbia.

This could have led to a new Balkan war, with the ethnically motivated redrawing of borders harboring huge potential for conflict.

But Trump’s plans were frustrated by an indictment against President Thaci from the Kosovo Tribunal in The Hague. Thaci handed himself over to the court.

Meanwhile, Grenell’s enduring popularity in Serbia is illustrated by the fact that Marko Duric, Serbia’s ambassador to the US, recently said Grenell was “undoubtedly Serbia’s friend.”

In 2023, Vucic presented Grenell with the country’s highest order in recognition of his advocacy for Serbia, justifying his decision by saying “I think he is one of the few people from the US who has a balanced approach to Kosovo.”

What would a Harris victory mean for the region?

Trump’s pro-Serbia stance hints at what the Western Balkans could expect if the Republican were to be returned to the White House in November.

The line taken by Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has not so far been as clear cut. Nevertheless, some conclusions can be drawn on the basis of both her personal background and foreign policy views.

It is considered unlikely that Harris would favor Serbian nationalists or any other ethnonationalists. In addition, Harris’s pro-Ukraine stance is well-documented.

It is possible that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned her of Moscow’s alleged plans to destabilize the Balkans or to open up new fronts there with the help of pro-Moscow irredentist Serbian nationalists.

The close ties between Belgrade and Moscow could push Harris to change America’s course.

US ‘needs to be tougher with Serbia’

Edward Joseph, a conflict researcher at the renowned Johns Hopkins University, recently criticized that the Biden administration had “cozied up” to Serbia.

It’s unlikely that Harris would favor Serbian or any other ethnonationalists if elected US president
© J. Scott Applewhite/dpa/AP/picture alliance

 

He went on to say that Vucic has shifted Belgrade’s orientation ever eastwards and that there was no reason why Harris, if elected, should continue Biden’s unsuccessful policy.

Former US diplomat Shaun Byrnes took the same line, recommending that the US needs to be “tougher with Serbia because it continues to have a hostile approach toward Kosovo.”

Biden’s ‘fantasy diplomacy’ in the Balkans

Daniel Serwer, a veteran diplomat who has worked with Richard Holbrooke, the architect of the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement for Bosnia and Herzegovina, has described Biden’s Balkans policy as “fantasy diplomacy.”

In Serwer’s eyes, to build up Vucic, the man who was Slobodan Milosevic’s propaganda minister in the 1990s, as an anchor of stability was far removed from reality.

The frequent visits to Moscow by Vucic ally and Serbian deputy premier Aleksandar Vulin, who recently assured Russian President Vladimir Putin in person that Serbia is “Russia’s strategic partner and ally,” have cast doubt on the US Balkans policy.

The activities of members of Trump’s circle in Belgrade have shown that if the former president is reelected in November, economic objectives will be at the forefront of America’s Western Balkans policy in the future.

The fact that Vucic has excellent relations with Putin suits Trump down to the ground.

Concern about a possible second Trump administration

For Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Montenegro, however, all of this is alarming. Because although Bosnia and Kosovo are two clearly pro-American, pro-Western states with Muslim majority populations, they cannot automatically rely on US protection against Serbia’s expansionist cravings if Trump is reelected.

Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic (right) enjoys excellent relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin (left)© picture-alliance/TASS/M. Metzel

Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic (right) enjoys excellent relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin (left)
© picture-alliance/TASS/M. Metzel

 

Trump has shown in the past that he has no qualms about dropping allies if it suits his agenda.

In December 2018, for example, he announced he would be withdrawing most US troops from Syria. In so doing, he betrayed the Kurds, who had done most of the fighting on the ground in the battle against the so-called “Islamic State.” This betrayal of allies led the then-US Defense Secretary James Mattis to resign.

Before Grenell’s Serbia-Kosovo swap land deal collapsed, Trump had threatened Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti on a number of occasions that he would withdraw US troops from Kosovo. The presence of these troops is seen as a life insurance policy for Kosovo, whose independence Serbia does not recognize.

Whether NATO’s KFOR troops could guarantee Kosovo’s security without the Americans is at the very least questionable.

But the Biden administration would appear to have taken at least one precaution in this respect: The US has supplied Kosovo with 250 Javelin anti-tank missiles, which it also sent to Ukraine. Turkey has also supplied its Bayraktar drones, which are no less effective.

Without these two weapons systems, Ukraine would no longer exist as an independent state.

Kosovo, incidentally, does not have any combat tanks — unlike Serbia, which has about 250. In short, the number of Javelins supplied by the US was certainly no coincidence.

Alexander Rhotert is a political scientist and author. A researcher of former Yugoslavia since 1991, he has worked for the UN, NATO, OSCE and the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in Bosnia and Herzegovina, among other organizations.

Politics

President Tinubu Transmits to The Senate Lists Of Ambassadorial Nominees

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President Bola Tinubu has transmitted to the senate two lists of 34 career and 31 non career ambassadors nominees for screening and confirmation.

Prominent names listed as non career ambassadors include Reno Omokri, Femi Fani-Kayode, Gen. Abdulrahman Dambazau, Victor Ikpeazu and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi.

Also listed as non career ambassadors nominees are Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, Vice Admiral Ete Ibas, Senator Jimoh Ibrahim, Senator Nora Daduut, Fatima Ajimobi, and Senator Ita Enang among others.

The two lists brings to 68 number of persons nominated so far as ambassadors awaiting confirmation by the Senate.

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PRESIDENT TINUBU FORWARDS NEW AMBASSADORIAL LIST TO SENATE, NOMINATES DAMBAZAU, IBAS, CHIOMA OHAKIM AND OTHERS

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By Prince Uwalaka Chimaroke
4-DEC- 2025

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has submitted a fresh set of ambassadorial nominations to the Senate, featuring a mix of distinguished public figures and seasoned professionals drawn from across the country.

Among the notable nominees are former Chief of Army Staff and ex-Minister of Interior, Abdulrahman Dambazau; former Chief of Naval Staff and immediate past sole administrator of Rivers State, Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas; former senator Ita Enang; and Mrs. Chioma Ohakim, former First Lady of Imo State.

The President formally transmitted two comprehensive lists containing 34 career and 31 non-career ambassadorial nominees, bringing the total number of nominees awaiting Senate confirmation to 68.

The newly submitted lists mark another significant step in the administration’s ongoing diplomatic restructuring, aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s representation and presence across global missions.

The Senate is expected to commence screening and confirmation proceedings in the coming days.

 

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I’m Not Playing Politics with Nnamdi Kanu’s Release – Gov Otti Replies Chief Ogbonna

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Our attention has been drawn to a statement credited to a Former Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs in Abia State, Chief Charles Ogbonna, wherein he called Governor Alex Otti unprintable names and also alleged that Governor Otti didn’t visit President Tinubu to discuss the issue of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, but to plan on how to defect to the APC, among other childish verbal attacks.

Chief Ognonna has been unleashing unprovoked verbal venom and vituperation on the Governor, but we chose to ignore him, not only because we have been busy with the task of governance, but because we also know that he is traumatised by the obscurity he was plunged into after the 2023 general election and felt he should be allowed to experience some healing that could help normalise his reasoning.

 

Ordinarily, we would have still ignored Chief Ognonna’s latest idle tirade and allow him delude himself with fantasies of fury, but because the Nnamdi Kanu issue is both sensitive and very important to this government, we felt we should respond and put the records straight.

 

In continuation of Governor Otti’s efforts aimed at securing Kanu’s release, the Governor subsequently had a meeting with the President after visiting the IPOB leader at the Sokoto Correctional Centre on Sunday, November 30 2025. This is in continuation of earlier meetings the Governor had been having with the FG on this matter in the past two years.

The issue of Kanu was the only subject matter that took Governor Otti to Aso Rock and to the Glory of God, the meeting was both positive and fruitful, as the President was so gracious and generous.

 

Chief Ogbonna’s allegation of Governor Otti going to lobby to join the APC is both petty, ignoble, laughable and very irresponsible. At the risk of sounding immodest, any political party Governor Otti chooses to join today would roll out the drums and red carpet to welcome him with joy and excitement. If anything, many notable and respected APC leaders are not just desirous of having him in their fold, but are strongly appealing to Governor Otti to join their party because they know that he is not a liability.

 

Ogbonna accused Otti of betrayal, but he didn’t say who Otti betrayed, how and when.

 

He claimed that Otti doesn’t have capacity, yet Otti defeated him in his Polling Unit, Ward and LGA where his PDP Candidates from House of Assembly to President lost woefully.

 

He accused Governor Otti of inconsistency, yet he abandoned Alhaji Atiku Abubarkar less than 48 hours after the result of the Presidential Election was announced, in spite of the empty noise and boast he made about the PDP’s Presidential Candidate, all for Atiku’s money when it was needed and available.

He alleged that Governor Otti is playing politics with Nnamdi Kanu, yet, he is angry that the Governor is engaging the FG to secure Kanu’s freedom. Is there anything more contradictory and ridiculous than Ogbonna’s utterances?

 

At this point, the general public needs to know the genesis of Chief Ogbonna’s anger and aggression.

Having acquired Agbozu Cocoa Plantation when he was in government, the present government decided to reclaim the Plantation which was yielding nothing to the state under Charles Ogbonna. In line with Governor Otti’s policy of operating a government with human face, which sees him pay compensation so as not to hurt any citizen or investor, he approved a compensation package which was paid to Chief Ogbonna. He was excited and full of thanks and appreciation to Governor Otti for the gesture, because he knew he didn’t deserve it. Unfortunately and in line with his insatiable quest for power and money, he thought that another opportunity had opened for him to surreptitiously sneak into the government as he later nominated his son to be appointed by Governor Otti. The Governor flatly declined the request and subsequently appointed another person from the same Ogbonna’s Community, a development that made him feel slighted, diminished and broken and has since then gone out of control, throwing tantrums and hoping to be invited for settlement.

 

Chief Ogbonna’s problem, like some of his co-travellers is his failure to wake up from his slumber and realise that the era of ruins is over and that Abia has moved forward, never to be dragged back.

His primitive arrogance and mediocre mindset that limit his understanding of government and governance to political appointments, settlement and sharing of public funds without service to the people has so blinded him to the extent that he attacked the Governor recently for awarding the badly broken Umuahia-Ikot Ekpene road, claiming that the FG had aleady awarded it and thus should not be awarded by the Governor. How could any human being with conscience prefer that his people continue to suffer and die in their numbers just because he feels that building the strategic road would earn the Governor a huge political capital? Ogbonna needs to be reminded that such evil mindset has no place in the New Abia.

 

Even though Ogbonna’s character deficiency doesn’t position him for any modicum of respect, however, having advanced in age, he is expected to conduct himself honourably and responsibly so as not to attract insults to himself.

 

Finally, Ogbonna needs to be educated that one of the hallmarks of a great leader is his ability to apply wisdom, emotional intelligence and deploy the instrument of diplomacy in solving problems that have the propensity to impact the security of life and property of the people negatively if handled wrongly.

Governor Otti didn’t campaign with Mazi Nnamdi Kanu’s name in 2023, and doesn’t need to campaign with his plight for 2027, however, he strongly believes that resolving the problem of Kanu’s conviction is one of the ways to achieving peace, security and healing in our land. Unfortunately, Chief Ogbonna is not grounded, both in character and knowledge of the ingredients of modern leadership, hence his kindergarten politicisation of Governor Otti’s engagements with the FG and visit to the President.

Now that Ogbonna has become an errand boy in the APC, he needs to be reminded that he can pursue his stomach agenda without necessarily carrying out this misplaced aggression against Governor Otti, because it makes him look more pathetic than he can ever imagine.

 

Ferdinand Ekeoma

Special Adviser to the Governor

(Media and Publicity)

December 4, 2025.

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