Tech
NASA increases the chance of ‘city-destroying’ asteroid hitting Earth
- READ MORE: Map reveals what will happen if the ‘city-destroying’ asteroid hits
The ‘city-destroying’ asteroid hurtling toward Earth is being carefully watched by hundreds of the world’s most powerful telescopes.
Now, NASA has quietly increased the chances that this deadly space rock will smash into the planet in 2032.
The space agency predicts that the asteroid 2024 YR4 has a one-in-38, or 2.6 per cent, chance of hitting.
Those are the same odds as having your number come up on a spin of a standard American roulette wheel.
When it was discovered in December last year, NASA estimated that the chances of 2024 YR4 hitting us were one in a thousand.
However, as more data has been gathered about its orbit, the impact probability has rapidly increased.
Currently, the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth on December 12, 2032, are double what they were at the end of January less than three weeks ago.
With an estimated diameter of 54 metres (177ft), or a little taller than Nelson’s Column in Trafalgar Square, that collision has the potential to cause enormous amounts of damage.
NASA has quietly increased the chances that the city-destroying asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth in 2032 once again (stock image)
The asteroid was discovered on December 27 by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile.
Early calculations of its orbit quickly showed that there was a slim chance of the near-Earth object (NEO) making a close pass of the planet in the next decade.
However, as astronomers made more observations and arrived at a better estimation of the asteroid’s orbit, the probability of a collision continued to rise.
On January 27, 2024 YR4 truly set alarm bells ringing when it became the only large asteroid with an impact probability greater than one per cent.
This prompted NASA to award the asteroid a score of three on the Torino Scale, a standard measure for the danger of NEOs.
This rating is extremely rare since it can only be given to an object over 20 metres (65ft) in diameter with an impact probability greater than one per cent.
The Torino scale describes this threat as: ‘A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction.’
Were the asteroid to hit Earth, NASA estimates that the explosion would be equivalent to eight megatons of TNT.
NASA now estimates that the 54 metre-wide (177ft) asteroid has a one-in-38 chance of hitting Earth. Those are the same odds as a specific number coming up on a standard American roulette wheel
That is more than 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.
The resulting blast would be similar to that caused by the Tunguska Asteroid, which flattened 830 square miles (2,150 square km) of Siberian forest in 1908 – an area more than double the size of New York.
Based on current estimates of the asteroid’s orbit, astronomers have calculated a ‘risk corridor’ of locations that could be hit if it were to collide with Earth.
This path stretches from northern South America, across sub-Saharan and North Africa, and into South Asia.
Worryingly, the risk corridor passes over eight of the world’s most populated cities, including Bogota in Colombia, Lagos in Nigeria, as well as Mumbai and Chennai in India.
Those cities alone have a combined population of over 110 million people, who could be in serious danger from an asteroid impact.
In the history of astronomy, only one other asteroid has ever been given a Torino Scale rating of three or higher – that being the 185-metre (600ft) 99942 Apophis.
Apophis, nicknamed the ‘God of Chaos’ asteroid, was briefly escalated to a four on the Torino Scale in late 2004 before rapidly dropping back towards zero.
The estimated ‘risk corridor’ for the asteroid’s impact (red line) passes over eight of the world’s 100 most populated cities, with a combined population of 110 million people
Astronomers around the world are currently holding out hope that 2024 YR4 will soon follow a similar pattern.
Most NEOs have a higher impact probability right after they are detected with the risk dropping off as scientists gather more data about their orbits.
At first, as lots of new data comes in, the probability tends to sharply increase creating the impression of a rapidly growing risk.
However, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) currently predict that this should be followed by a drop in probability once the astronomers can be more certain about the asteroid’s orbital path.
NASA spokesperson Molly Wasser wrote in a blog post: ‘As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known.
‘It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s.’
She adds: ‘It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.’
Both NASA and ESA will continue to make observations of the asteroid until April at which point it will become too faint to observe until it returns around June 2028.
If the asteroid did hit Earth, the resulting blast could topple residential structures within a 8.5-mile radius (13.7 km) (shown as blue) and break windows everywhere within 24.6 miles (39.6km) (yellow)
In a rare emergency decision, ESA has also been granted access to the James Webb Space Telescope in March to better assess the risk posed by 2024 YR4.
The JWST will record the heat emitted by the asteroid using its infrared sensors which will give a more accurate estimate for its size.
Those measurements will be key to making a decision on whether action needs to be taken to divert the asteroid from its course.
If the decision is made to push the asteroid off its current course, the most likely option would be using a ‘kinetic impactor’ to push it aside by ramming a satellite into the asteroid as fast as possible.
In 2022, NASA’s DART mission showed that it was possible to significantly alter the trajectory of a large asteroid with a satellite collision.
However, with only eight years until the asteroid arrives, some scientists have cast doubt on the plan to deflect the killer asteroid.
In a post on X, Dr Robin George Andrews, a volcanologist and author based in London, points out that we ‘have less than eight years to potentially deal with it’.
‘You need 10 years or more to build, plan and execute an asteroid deflection mission,’ he said.
The Federal Government has officially removed the 5% excise duty earlier imposed on telecommunications services in Nigeria, a decision expected to reduce cost pressures for millions of mobile subscribers.
The National Orientation Agency (NOA) disclosed the development in a post on its official X handle on Thursday, noting that the step reflects the Tinubu administration’s efforts to cushion the impact of economic reforms and enhance affordability in the digital economy.
The tax, which covered both voice calls and data, was introduced under former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration but faced strong opposition from telecom operators, industry stakeholders, and consumer rights groups, who argued that it would further burden citizens already grappling with rising tariffs and economic hardship.
Executive Vice Chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Aminu Maida, confirmed the development, stating that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ordered the scrapping of the tax during deliberations on the recently signed Finance Act.
According to Maida, the removal aligns with the government’s commitment to fostering digital inclusion, easing the cost of communication, and encouraging growth in Nigeria’s telecommunications sector.
The decision is expected to provide relief to over 171 million active telecom users nationwide, who have also been hit with a 50% tariff increase implemented earlier in the year.
Nigerian telecom operator 9mobile formerly Etisalat has changed its name to T2.
The unveiling to a new brand identity was announced during a corporate event tagged Tech Meets Tenacity at Eko Hotels and Suites in Lagos.
The transformation also comes with a new orange colour scheme, replacing the company’s longtime green branding.
The Chief Executive Officer, Obafemi Banigbe, said the move was aimed at redefining the company’s position in Nigeria’s telecom market and competing more strongly in the industry.
The event was attended by key stakeholders, including the Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Dr. Bosun Tijani, and featured musical performances, with entertainment personality Darey Art Alade as host.
The rebrand marks another chapter in the company’s history.
Originally launched as Etisalat Nigeria, the firm once had over 22 million subscribers before financial challenges and loss of investors reduced its active users to 3.2 million by January 2025.
In recent months, it signed a national roaming agreement with MTN Nigeria to improve coverage and service quality.
The shift from 9mobile to T2 is part of a broader plan to stabilise operations, attract more customers, and remain competitive in Nigeria’s fast-changing telecommunications sector.
Tech
BREAKING: MTN and Airtel Nigerian network subscribers spent a total of N2.53 trillion on voice and data services in the first half of 2025
Subscribers on MTN and Airtel networks spent a total of N2.53tn on voice and data services in the first half of 2025, representing a 50.9 per cent increase from the N1.68tn recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
This is according to an analysis of the half-year 2025 results released by both telcos.
The figure reflects rising consumer spending on telecommunications, driven by tariff reviews, increased smartphone penetration and sustained network investment by the two largest mobile network operators in Nigeria.
MTN Nigeria generated N2.12tn in voice and data revenue between January and June 2025, marking a 55.7 per cent increase from the N1.36tn recorded in H1 2024.
The telco’s data revenue surged by 69.2 per cent to N1.23tn, up from N727.33bn in the same period last year.
Voice revenue also grew by 40.3 per cent year-on-year to reach N887.13bn, compared to N632.38bn previously.
The company attributed the performance to robust demand, price adjustments implemented largely in the second quarter, and continued growth in its active data user base.
MTN reported an 11.8 per cent increase in active data subscribers to 51 million, while total mobile subscribers rose by 6.7 per cent to 84.7 million.
Average data consumption per subscriber increased by 26.3 per cent to 13.2 gigabytes, supported by smartphone penetration of 62.6 per cent and a 41.2 per cent rise in data traffic.
The telco also executed a price review across voice and data plans during the period, which boosted service revenue.
The strong topline performance helped MTN swing from a loss of N519.1bn in H1 2024 to a profit after tax of N414.9bn in H1 2025.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation more than doubled, rising by 119.5 per cent to N1.2tn, with the EBITDA margin improving to 50.6 per cent.
The company has since revised its full-year guidance, forecasting service revenue and EBITDA margin growth of at least 50 per cent.
Airtel Nigeria, meanwhile, recorded a total of $298 million in data and voice revenue during the same six-month period.
Using the exchange rate of N1,384/$ adopted by the company, this amounts to N412.43bn—an increase of 30.1 per cent over the N316.94bn reported in H1 2024.
Airtel’s data revenue grew by 40.2 per cent year-on-year, rising from $117 million (N161.93bn) to $164 million (N226.98bn), while voice revenue rose by 19.1 per cent from $112 million (N155.01bn) to $134 million (N185.46bn).
The growth was underpinned by an 11.3 per cent rise in Airtel Nigeria’s data subscriber base to 29.3 million and a 46.8 per cent increase in data average revenue per user.
Data usage per subscriber climbed to 9.3GB monthly, up from 7.3GB in the previous year, while smartphone penetration rose to 51.4 per cent.
The company’s overall customer base grew by 6.3 per cent to 53.6 million by June 2025 in Nigeria.
Airtel Nigeria’s EBITDA rose by 49.9 per cent year-on-year to $185 million, and its EBITDA margin expanded to 55.7 per cent, supported by strong topline performance and the continuation of its cost efficiency strategy.
Although the company was impacted by currency devaluation in the previous year, its financial position improved in 2025, with increased profitability and stronger operating cash flows.
Both MTN and Airtel noted that macroeconomic conditions had become more stable during the first half of the year.
The Central Bank of Nigeria maintained the monetary policy rate at 27.5 per cent, helping to moderate inflation to 22.2 per cent by June 2025.
The naira also held steady around N1,530 to the US dollar, providing a more favourable environment for financial planning and capital investment.
In his commentary on the H1 result, the CEO of MTN Nigeria, Karl Toriola, said “We maintained strong commercial momentum in H1 2025 through disciplined execution, targeted customer engagement and network investments.
“Our mobile subscribers rose to 84.7 million, with a net addition of 3.8 million in H1; despite the impact of the new SIM registration regulations introduced in Q1. As we increase our effort to add more strategic agents, we anticipate an easing of this headwind as we move forward. Active data users rose by 3.3 million in H1 to approximately 51 million, driving a 41.2 per cent YoY increase in data traffic.
“During the period, we completed the phased implementation of the new price adjustments across voice and data bundles, largely benefiting Q2. Pleasingly, the demand for our services remained resilient, which supported strong service revenue growth in the period.”
MTN said it had launched the first phase of its Dabengwa Tier III Data Centre and was onboarding mobile virtual network operators to its infrastructure, in line with the NCC’s efforts to deepen competition and improve nationwide connectivity.
Toriola noted, “As part of our strategy to expand capacity and meet the growing demand for our services, we launched the first phase of our US$240 million Dabengwa Tier 3 Data Centre in July 2025. This multi-stage data centre project is a world-class facility that will become the largest of its kind in West Africa. It will deliver industry-leading standards of scalability, reliability and security. It will enable businesses to digitise operations, drive innovation and scale efficiently.”
Airtel also highlighted its partnership with SpaceX to deliver Starlink’s high-speed satellite broadband services to remote communities across Africa, including Nigeria.
It noted, “On 5 May 2025, the Company announced an agreement with SpaceX to bring Starlink’s high-speed internet services to its customers in Africa.
“With this collaboration, Airtel Africa will further enhance its next generation satellite connectivity offerings and augment connectivity for enterprises, businesses and socio-economic communities like school, health centres etc in most rural parts of Africa.
“Currently, SpaceX has acquired the necessary licences in nine out of 14 countries within Airtel Africa’s footprint and operating licences for the other five countries are under process.”
The combined N2.53tn spent on telecom services in just six months highlights the critical role played by voice and data connectivity in Nigeria’s economy.
With expanding networks, increasing demand for digital content, and deeper smartphone adoption, telecoms are poised to remain one of the fastest-growing sectors in the country’s post-pandemic recovery.
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